2026-27 regular season · October 24, 2026 · OT
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Predators at Penguins, Oct 24, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Penguins beat the Predators 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Predators had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 13 points of win probability to the Predators.
The biggest swing (OT): the Penguins won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Penguins.
Final (OT)
 Nashville Predators | 2 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Penguins | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Penguins lucky · −39 Predators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Predators win 4, Penguins win 6.
- 1 NSH 4 PIT 1
- 2 NSH 3 PIT 1
- 3 NSH 4 PIT 3
- 4 NSH 3 PIT 2
- 5 NSH 1 PIT 2
- 6 NSH 2 PIT 3
- 7 NSH 2 PIT 4
- 8 NSH 2 PIT 5
- 9 NSH 1 PIT 4
- 10 NSH 1 PIT 6
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Penguins by 0.7, 62% to win. The Penguins won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.3 goals from ours; 78% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Predators win | 37.6% |
| Penguins win | 62.4% |
| Middle 50%: Predators by 1 to Penguins by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Predators by 3 to Penguins by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Predators by 4 to Penguins by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Penguins by 1 | 22.4% |
| Exactly Predators by 1 | 17.4% |
| Exactly Penguins by 3 | 15.8% |
| Exactly Penguins by 2 | 11.6% |
| Exactly Predators by 3 | 7.8% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 24, 6:44 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.2 replays ended
Predators win 39% of them, Penguins 61%. The line is what actually happened: Penguins by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Predators by 3+ | 11.3% |
| Predators by 2 | 7.4% |
| Predators by 1 | 20.5% |
| Penguins by 1 | 21.5% |
| Penguins by 2 | 11.1% |
| Penguins by 3+ | 28.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Predators | 34 | 2 | 2.35 | −0.35 |
 Penguins | 50 | 2 | 3.57 | −1.57 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 2:44 | Holding on the Predators (Roman Josi): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PIT |
| P3 9:16 | Tripping on the Penguins (Connor Dewar): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% NSH |
When it happened
Penguins’ chance of winning
As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 10:36 | Steven Stamkos scored on a deflected shot from 5 feetShooting · 17% chance | +14% NSH | – |
| 2 | P1 2:39 | Tommy Novak’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 28% chance | +5% NSH | – |
| 3 | P2 19:42 | Connor Dewar scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 11% chance | +17% PIT | – |
| 4 | P2 13:20 | Jayden Struble scored on a snap shot from 28 feetShooting · 10% chance | +19% NSH | – |
| 5 | P3 9:16 | Tripping on the Penguins (Connor Dewar): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% NSH | – |
| 6 | P3 7:43 | Rickard Rakell’s snap shot from 26 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance | +6% NSH | – |
| 7 | P3 1:06 | Rickard Rakell scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 8% chance | +41% PIT | – |
| 8 | OT | The Penguins won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip | +49% PIT | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Predators 47% · Penguins 53%
- Final margin
- Penguins by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for the Penguins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Penguins by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Predators 39% · Penguins 61% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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