2026-27 regular season · October 24, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Hurricanes at Blues, Oct 24, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Hurricanes beat the Blues 4–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.
The biggest swing (P2, 15:15 left): Sean Walker scored on a wrist shot from 18 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.
Final
 Carolina Hurricanes | 4 |
|---|---|
 St. Louis Blues | 0 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Hurricanes lucky · −39 Blues
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Hurricanes win 6, Blues win 4.
- 1 CAR 7 STL 2
- 2 CAR 5 STL 2
- 3 CAR 3 STL 0
- 4 CAR 5 STL 3
- 5 CAR 4 STL 3
- 6 CAR 3 STL 2
- 7 CAR 2 STL 3
- 8 CAR 1 STL 2
- 9 CAR 1 STL 3
- 10 CAR 2 STL 5
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Hurricanes by 0.4, 57% to win. The Hurricanes won by 4: the pick was right. The final margin was 3.6 goals from ours; 9% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes win | 57.0% |
| Blues win | 43.0% |
| Middle 50%: Hurricanes by 2 to Blues by 1 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Hurricanes by 4 to Blues by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Hurricanes by 5 to Blues by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 1 | 21.4% |
| Exactly Blues by 1 | 19.3% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 3 | 13.7% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 2 | 11.4% |
| Exactly Blues by 3 | 9.5% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 24, 6:44 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Hurricanes win 61% of them, Blues 39%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes by 3+ | 30.2% |
| Hurricanes by 2 | 11.3% |
| Hurricanes by 1 | 19.4% |
| Blues by 1 | 20.5% |
| Blues by 2 | 7.8% |
| Blues by 3+ | 10.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hurricanes | 53 | 4 | 3.39 | +0.61 |
 Blues | 35 | 0 | 2.36 | −2.36 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P2 8:36 | Too many men on the ice on the Hurricanes (CAR): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% STL |
| P3 16:40 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Blues (Joel Hofer): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% CAR |
When it happened
Blues’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 15:00 | Jordan Martinook’s snap shot from 18 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance | +3% STL | – |
| 2 | P2 18:30 | Connor McMichael’s wrist shot from 19 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance | +3% CAR | – |
| 3 | P2 15:56 | Sean Walker’s snap shot from 14 feet was savedShooting · 14% chance | +3% STL | – |
| 4 | P2 15:55 | Nikolaj Ehlers missed the net with a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 20% chance | +4% STL | – |
| 5 | P2 15:15 | Sean Walker scored on a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 14% chance | +17% CAR | – |
| 6 | P2 14:55 | Jesperi Kotkaniemi scored on a wrist shot from 16 feetShooting · 11% chance | +14% CAR | – |
| 7 | P2 8:36 | Too many men on the ice on the Hurricanes (CAR): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% STL | – |
| 8 | P2 6:25 | Logan Stankoven scored on a wrist shot from 26 feetShooting · 8% chance | +8% CAR | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Hurricanes 80% · Blues 20%
- Final margin
- Hurricanes by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.2 for the Hurricanes
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Hurricanes by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Hurricanes 61% · Blues 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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