2026-27 regular season · October 10, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Oilers at Sharks, Oct 10, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Oilers beat the Sharks 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Oilers win 8 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 7:23 left): Mattias Ekholm scored on a slap shot from 49 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Oilers.
Final
 Edmonton Oilers | 3 |
|---|---|
 San Jose Sharks | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Oilers about even · −19 Sharks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oilers win 8, Sharks win 2.
- 1 EDM 6 SJS 0
- 2 EDM 5 SJS 0
- 3 EDM 4 SJS 0
- 4 EDM 4 SJS 1
- 5 EDM 3 SJS 0
- 6 EDM 3 SJS 1
- 7 EDM 3 SJS 2
- 8 EDM 2 SJS 1
- 9 EDM 1 SJS 2
- 10 EDM 3 SJS 4
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Oilers by 0.4, 56% to win. The Oilers won by 2: the pick was right. The final margin was 1.6 goals from ours; 48% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Oilers win | 56.0% |
| Sharks win | 44.0% |
| Middle 50%: Oilers by 2 to Sharks by 1 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Oilers by 4 to Sharks by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Oilers by 5 to Sharks by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Oilers by 1 | 21.3% |
| Exactly Sharks by 1 | 19.6% |
| Exactly Oilers by 3 | 13.4% |
| Exactly Oilers by 2 | 11.3% |
| Exactly Sharks by 3 | 9.8% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 10, 12:07 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Oilers win 81% of them, Sharks 19%. The line is what actually happened: Oilers by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oilers by 3+ | 52.9% |
| Oilers by 2 | 12.9% |
| Oilers by 1 | 15.1% |
| Sharks by 1 | 15.1% |
| Sharks by 2 | 2.1% |
| Sharks by 3+ | 1.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oilers | 35 | 3 | 3.42 | −0.42 |
 Sharks | 33 | 1 | 1.43 | −0.43 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P3 19:38 | Interference on the Sharks (Kiefer Sherwood): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% EDM |
| P3 11:09 | Tripping on the Sharks (Macklin Celebrini): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% EDM |
| P3 2:47 | Slashing on the Oilers (Vasily Podkolzin): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% SJS |
When it happened
Sharks’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 16:48 | Leon Draisaitl’s snap shot from 15 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance | +4% SJS | – |
| 2 | P1 7:23 | Mattias Ekholm scored on a slap shot from 49 feetShooting · 3% chance | +17% EDM | – |
| 3 | P3 19:38 | Interference on the Sharks (Kiefer Sherwood): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% EDM | – |
| 4 | P3 19:29 | Leon Draisaitl’s wrist shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 25% chance | +4% SJS | – |
| 5 | P3 19:09 | Kasperi Kapanen’s wrist shot from 16 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance | +3% SJS | – |
| 6 | P3 16:47 | Vasily Podkolzin scored on a slap shot from 37 feetShooting · 8% chance | +15% EDM | – |
| 7 | P3 14:20 | Alex Formenton scored on a backhand shot from 8 feetShooting · 11% chance | +5% EDM | – |
| 8 | P3 8:41 | Macklin Celebrini scored on a wrist shot from 32 feetShooting · 4% chance | +3% SJS | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oilers 96% · Sharks 4%
- Final margin
- Oilers by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for the Sharks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oilers by 2.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Oilers 81% · Sharks 19% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 2, 2026-27
- Sharks at Blues Oct 8, 2026 · SJS 3–2 OT · replay 39% for the winner
- Oilers at Ducks Oct 7, 2026 · EDM 5–2 · replay 43% for the winner
- Kraken at Red Wings Oct 9, 2026 · SEA 6–3 · replay 46% for the winner
- Avalanche at Flames Oct 8, 2026 · COL 7–3 · replay 49% for the winner
- Kraken at Capitals Oct 11, 2026 · SEA 5–3 · replay 49% for the winner
- Ducks at Flames Oct 10, 2026 · ANA 4–2 · replay 51% for the winner
- Ducks at Jets Oct 9, 2026 · ANA 5–1 · replay 53% for the winner
- Kings at Golden Knights Oct 10, 2026 · VGK 2–1 OT · replay 63% for the winner
- Panthers at Kings Oct 6, 2026 · FLA 2–1 · replay 63% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Kraken Oct 6, 2026 · VGK 6–2 · replay 67% for the winner
- Canucks at Devils Oct 10, 2026 · NJD 4–1 · replay 71% for the winner
- Canucks at Rangers Oct 11, 2026 · NYR 6–2 · replay 71% for the winner