2026-27 regular season · October 5, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Sharks at Stars, Oct 5, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Stars beat the Sharks 5–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Stars win 8 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 1:09 left): Miro Heiskanen scored on a backhand shot from 9 feet, worth 18 points of win probability to the Stars.
Final
 San Jose Sharks | 0 |
|---|---|
 Dallas Stars | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Stars about even · −19 Sharks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sharks win 2, Stars win 8.
- 1 SJS 2 DAL 1
- 2 SJS 3 DAL 2
- 3 SJS 3 DAL 4
- 4 SJS 2 DAL 3
- 5 SJS 2 DAL 4
- 6 SJS 1 DAL 4
- 7 SJS 2 DAL 5
- 8 SJS 1 DAL 5
- 9 SJS 0 DAL 5
- 10 SJS 1 DAL 8
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Stars by 0.8, 63% to win. The Stars won by 5: the pick was right. The final margin was 4.2 goals from ours; 6% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sharks win | 37.2% |
| Stars win | 62.8% |
| Middle 50%: Sharks by 1 to Stars by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Sharks by 3 to Stars by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Sharks by 4 to Stars by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Stars by 1 | 22.4% |
| Exactly Sharks by 1 | 17.3% |
| Exactly Stars by 3 | 15.9% |
| Exactly Stars by 2 | 11.6% |
| Exactly Stars by 4 | 8.0% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Mon, Oct 5, 6:54 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Sharks win 19% of them, Stars 81%. The line is what actually happened: Stars by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sharks by 3+ | 2.9% |
| Sharks by 2 | 2.8% |
| Sharks by 1 | 13.5% |
| Stars by 1 | 14.2% |
| Stars by 2 | 11.8% |
| Stars by 3+ | 54.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sharks | 20 | 0 | 1.62 | −1.62 |
 Stars | 43 | 5 | 4.06 | +0.94 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 6:59 | Hooking on the Sharks (Tyler Toffoli): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DAL |
| P2 11:39 | High sticking on the Stars (Oskar Bäck): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% SJS |
| P2 8:56 | Holding on the Sharks (Sam Dickinson): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% DAL |
| P3 17:49 | Interference on the Stars (Lian Bichsel): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% SJS |
| P3 12:23 | Tripping on the Sharks (Dmitry Orlov): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% DAL |
When it happened
Stars’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 13:04 | Sam Steel missed the net with a slap shot from 14 feetShooting · 19% chance | +3% SJS | – |
| 2 | P1 12:41 | Wyatt Johnston’s snap shot from 8 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance | +3% SJS | – |
| 3 | P1 6:59 | Hooking on the Sharks (Tyler Toffoli): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% DAL | – |
| 4 | P1 5:32 | Jason Robertson’s backhand shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance | +3% SJS | – |
| 5 | P1 5:03 | Roope Hintz’s backhand shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance | +4% SJS | – |
| 6 | P1 1:09 | Miro Heiskanen scored on a backhand shot from 9 feetShooting · 4% chance | +18% DAL | – |
| 7 | P2 16:43 | Joel Kiviranta scored on a snap shot from 6 feetShooting · 10% chance | +13% DAL | – |
| 8 | P2 13:41 | Jamie Benn scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 20% chance | +6% DAL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sharks 2% · Stars 98%
- Final margin
- Stars by 5
- Luck in goals
- 1.9 for the Stars
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stars by 3.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Sharks 19% · Stars 81% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 2, 2026-27
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