2026-27 regular season · October 6, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Senators at Red Wings, Oct 6, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Red Wings beat the Senators 5–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 16:44 left): Alex DeBrincat scored on a wrist shot from 14 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Red Wings.
Final
 Ottawa Senators | 3 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Red Wings | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 Red Wings lucky · −30 Senators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Senators win 3, Red Wings win 7.
- 1 OTT 4 DET 1
- 2 OTT 2 DET 1
- 3 OTT 4 DET 3
- 4 OTT 2 DET 3
- 5 OTT 2 DET 3
- 6 OTT 1 DET 3
- 7 OTT 1 DET 4
- 8 OTT 3 DET 6
- 9 OTT 0 DET 4
- 10 OTT 0 DET 6
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Senators by 0.1, 52% to win. The Red Wings won by 2, a result we gave 48%. The final margin was 2.1 goals from ours; 39% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Senators win | 52.0% |
| Red Wings win | 48.0% |
| Middle 50%: Senators by 2 to Red Wings by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Senators by 4 to Red Wings by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Senators by 5 to Red Wings by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Senators by 1 | 20.7% |
| Exactly Red Wings by 1 | 20.5% |
| Exactly Senators by 3 | 12.1% |
| Exactly Red Wings by 3 | 11.1% |
| Exactly Senators by 2 | 10.6% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 6, 5:12 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Senators win 30% of them, Red Wings 70%. The line is what actually happened: Red Wings by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Senators by 3+ | 6.5% |
| Senators by 2 | 6.0% |
| Senators by 1 | 17.6% |
| Red Wings by 1 | 19.7% |
| Red Wings by 2 | 12.1% |
| Red Wings by 3+ | 38.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Senators | 35 | 3 | 2.45 | +0.55 |
 Red Wings | 44 | 4 | 3.25 | +0.75 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 12:42 | Hooking on the Red Wings (Moritz Seider): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P1 8:59 | Holding the stick on the Senators (Nick Cousins): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P1 5:45 | High sticking on the Red Wings (Andrew Copp): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P2 19:12 | Holding on the Senators (Nikolas Matinpalo): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P2 14:05 | Holding on the Red Wings (Anton Johansson): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% OTT |
| P2 4:09 | Holding on the Senators (Drake Batherson): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% DET |
| P2 0:00 | Roughing on the Red Wings (Alex DeBrincat): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% OTT |
| P3 13:40 | Slashing on the Senators (Ridly Greig): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% DET |
| P3 4:23 | Tripping on the Red Wings (Keegan Kolesar): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% OTT |
| P3 1:43 | Interference on the Senators (Drake Batherson): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% DET |
When it happened
Red Wings’ chance of winning
As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 17:16 | Tim Stützle scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 13% chance | +14% OTT | – |
| 2 | P1 16:44 | Alex DeBrincat scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 10% chance | +15% DET | – |
| 3 | P1 6:46 | Dylan Larkin scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 16% chance | +14% DET | – |
| 4 | P2 17:59 | Viktor Arvidsson scored on a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 15% chance | +12% DET | – |
| 5 | P2 15:30 | Justin Faulk scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 11% chance | +7% DET | – |
| 6 | P2 13:52 | Drake Batherson scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 23% chance | +6% OTT | – |
| 7 | P3 9:30 | William Eklund scored on a snap shot from 9 feetShooting · 7% chance | +12% OTT | – |
| 8 | P3 4:11 | Tim Stützle’s snap shot from 13 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance | +9% DET | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Senators 19% · Red Wings 81%
- Final margin
- Red Wings by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for the Red Wings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Red Wings by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Senators 30% · Red Wings 70% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 2, 2026-27
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