2026-27 regular season · October 10, 2026 · SO
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Predators at Senators, Oct 10, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Senators beat the Predators 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Predators had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 11 points of win probability to the Predators.
The biggest swing (SO): the Senators won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Senators.
Final (SO)
 Nashville Predators | 2 |
|---|---|
 Ottawa Senators | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Senators lucky · −34 Predators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Predators win 3, Senators win 7.
- 1 NSH 2 OTT 0
- 2 NSH 3 OTT 2
- 3 NSH 2 OTT 1
- 4 NSH 2 OTT 3
- 5 NSH 2 OTT 3
- 6 NSH 1 OTT 2
- 7 NSH 3 OTT 5
- 8 NSH 1 OTT 4
- 9 NSH 1 OTT 4
- 10 NSH 0 OTT 4
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Senators by 0.8, 64% to win. The Senators won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.2 goals from ours; 78% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Predators win | 36.4% |
| Senators win | 63.6% |
| Middle 50%: Predators by 1 to Senators by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Predators by 3 to Senators by 5 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Predators by 4 to Senators by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Senators by 1 | 22.5% |
| Exactly Predators by 1 | 17.1% |
| Exactly Senators by 3 | 16.2% |
| Exactly Senators by 2 | 11.7% |
| Exactly Senators by 4 | 8.2% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 10, 12:07 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.8 replays ended
Predators win 34% of them, Senators 66%. The line is what actually happened: Senators by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Predators by 3+ | 5.6% |
| Predators by 2 | 5.8% |
| Predators by 1 | 22.7% |
| Senators by 1 | 26.2% |
| Senators by 2 | 14.5% |
| Senators by 3+ | 25.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Predators | 25 | 2 | 1.14 | +0.86 |
 Senators | 35 | 2 | 2.62 | −0.62 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 17:13 | Hooking on the Senators (Andre Burakovsky): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P1 7:03 | Slashing on the Senators (Michael Amadio): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P1 4:15 | Cross checking on the Predators (Adam Wilsby): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% OTT |
| P1 1:26 | Too many men on the ice on the Senators (OTT): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% NSH |
| P2 10:37 | Slashing on the Predators (Brady Skjei): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% OTT |
| P2 9:03 | High sticking on the Senators (Hoyt Stanley): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P2 8:04 | Tripping on the Predators (Ryan O'Reilly): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% OTT |
| P2 6:58 | Roughing on the Predators (Filip Forsberg): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% OTT |
| P3 10:48 | Tripping on the Predators (Nils Hoglander): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% OTT |
| P3 10:42 | Interference on the Senators (Thomas Chabot): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% NSH |
| P3 8:34 | Too many men on the ice on the Senators (OTT): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% NSH |
| P3 0:13 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Predators (Roman Josi): 2 minutes on the power play | +11% OTT |
When it happened
Senators’ chance of winning
As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 11:10 | Ross Colton scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 15% chance | +14% NSH | – |
| 2 | P1 6:50 | Jonathan Marchessault scored on a wrist shot from 15 feetShooting · 7% chance | +14% NSH | – |
| 3 | P2 10:31 | Tim Stützle scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 18% chance | +13% OTT | – |
| 4 | P3 1:23 | Drake Batherson scored on a deflected shot from 5 feetShooting · 18% chance | +36% OTT | – |
| 5 | P3 0:16 | Tim Stützle missed the net with a slap shot from 28 feetShooting · 16% chance | +7% NSH | – |
| 6 | P3 0:13 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Predators (Roman Josi): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +11% OTT | – |
| 7 | P3 0:08 | Thomas Chabot’s wrist shot from 21 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance | +8% NSH | – |
| 8 | SO | The Senators won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips | +51% OTT | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Predators 30% · Senators 70%
- Final margin
- Senators by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for the Senators
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Senators by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Predators 34% · Senators 66% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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