2026-27 regular season · October 11, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Hurricanes at Flyers, Oct 11, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Hurricanes beat the Flyers 4–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P2, 9:44 left): Andrei Svechnikov scored on a snap shot from 34 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.
Final
 Carolina Hurricanes | 4 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Flyers | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Hurricanes lucky · −28 Flyers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Hurricanes win 7, Flyers win 3.
- 1 CAR 6 PHI 0
- 2 CAR 4 PHI 0
- 3 CAR 5 PHI 2
- 4 CAR 4 PHI 1
- 5 CAR 4 PHI 2
- 6 CAR 2 PHI 1
- 7 CAR 3 PHI 2
- 8 CAR 3 PHI 4
- 9 CAR 3 PHI 4
- 10 CAR 1 PHI 4
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Hurricanes by 0.6, 60% to win. The Hurricanes won by 3: the pick was right. The final margin was 2.4 goals from ours; 33% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes win | 60.0% |
| Flyers win | 40.0% |
| Middle 50%: Hurricanes by 3 to Flyers by 1 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Hurricanes by 4 to Flyers by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Hurricanes by 5 to Flyers by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 1 | 21.7% |
| Exactly Flyers by 1 | 18.5% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 3 | 14.8% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 2 | 11.9% |
| Exactly Flyers by 3 | 8.6% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sun, Oct 11, 12:31 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Hurricanes win 72% of them, Flyers 28%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes by 3+ | 39.1% |
| Hurricanes by 2 | 13.3% |
| Hurricanes by 1 | 19.3% |
| Flyers by 1 | 17.7% |
| Flyers by 2 | 5.5% |
| Flyers by 3+ | 5.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hurricanes | 44 | 4 | 3.24 | +0.76 |
 Flyers | 34 | 1 | 1.63 | −0.63 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 8:01 | Cross checking on the Flyers (Oliver Bonk): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CAR |
| P1 5:23 | Hooking on the Flyers (Oliver Bonk): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CAR |
| P1 2:48 | Tripping on the Hurricanes (William Carrier): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PHI |
| P2 18:49 | Holding on the Hurricanes (William Carrier): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PHI |
| P3 13:31 | Hooking on the Hurricanes (Andrei Svechnikov): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% PHI |
| P3 9:42 | Cross checking on the Flyers (Tyson Foerster): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% CAR |
| P3 4:16 | Hooking on the Flyers (Travis Sanheim): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% CAR |
When it happened
Flyers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 5:23 | Hooking on the Flyers (Oliver Bonk): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% CAR | – |
| 2 | P1 2:48 | Tripping on the Hurricanes (William Carrier): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% PHI | – |
| 3 | P2 18:49 | Holding on the Hurricanes (William Carrier): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% PHI | – |
| 4 | P2 9:44 | Andrei Svechnikov scored on a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 8% chance | +20% CAR | – |
| 5 | P2 6:15 | Shayne Gostisbehere scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 11% chance | +15% CAR | – |
| 6 | P2 4:34 | Christian Dvorak scored on a tip from 19 feetShooting · 7% chance | +15% PHI | – |
| 7 | P2 4:08 | Jamie Drysdale missed the net with a snap shot from 7 feetShooting · 24% chance | +6% CAR | – |
| 8 | P2 3:06 | Sebastian Aho scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 10% chance | +15% CAR | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Hurricanes 89% · Flyers 11%
- Final margin
- Hurricanes by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for the Hurricanes
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Hurricanes by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Hurricanes 72% · Flyers 28% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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