2026-27 regular season · October 10, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Blue Jackets at Blues, Oct 10, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Blues beat the Blue Jackets 5–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Blue Jackets had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 22 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.
The biggest swing (P3, 13:09 left): Cole Sillinger scored on a wrist shot from 8 feet, worth 25 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.
Final
 Columbus Blue Jackets | 3 |
|---|---|
 St. Louis Blues | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +40 Blues lucky · −40 Blue Jackets
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Blue Jackets win 4, Blues win 6.
- 1 CBJ 3 STL 0
- 2 CBJ 2 STL 0
- 3 CBJ 4 STL 3
- 4 CBJ 3 STL 2
- 5 CBJ 1 STL 2
- 6 CBJ 0 STL 1
- 7 CBJ 0 STL 2
- 8 CBJ 1 STL 4
- 9 CBJ 0 STL 3
- 10 CBJ 0 STL 4
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Blues by 0.1, 52% to win. The Blues won by 2: the pick was right. The final margin was 1.9 goals from ours; 49% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Blue Jackets win | 47.5% |
| Blues win | 52.5% |
| Middle 50%: Blue Jackets by 2 to Blues by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Blue Jackets by 4 to Blues by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Blue Jackets by 4 to Blues by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Blues by 1 | 21.3% |
| Exactly Blue Jackets by 1 | 19.9% |
| Exactly Blues by 3 | 12.5% |
| Exactly Blue Jackets by 3 | 10.7% |
| Exactly Blues by 2 | 10.0% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 10, 12:07 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Blue Jackets win 40% of them, Blues 60%. The line is what actually happened: Blues by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Blue Jackets by 3+ | 8.4% |
| Blue Jackets by 2 | 7.9% |
| Blue Jackets by 1 | 23.6% |
| Blues by 1 | 24.9% |
| Blues by 2 | 12.4% |
| Blues by 3+ | 22.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Blue Jackets | 39 | 3 | 1.62 | +1.38 |
 Blues | 36 | 4 | 2.85 | +1.15 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 11:16 | Hooking on the Blues (Robert Thomas): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CBJ |
| P2 16:06 | Interference on the Blue Jackets (Damon Severson): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% STL |
When it happened
Blues’ chance of winning
As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 3:50 | Valeri Nichushkin scored on a deflected shot from 4 feetShooting · 21% chance | +14% CBJ | – |
| 2 | P1 0:12 | Kent Johnson scored on a wrist shot from 25 feetShooting · 6% chance | +15% CBJ | – |
| 3 | P2 13:50 | Jake Neighbours scored on a slap shot from 10 feetShooting · 21% chance | +13% STL | – |
| 4 | P2 10:58 | Jimmy Snuggerud scored on a deflected shot from 6 feetShooting · 9% chance | +19% STL | – |
| 5 | P2 7:28 | Jimmy Snuggerud scored on a wrist shot from 30 feetShooting · 3% chance | +21% STL | – |
| 6 | P3 13:09 | Cole Sillinger scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 15% chance | +25% CBJ | – |
| 7 | P3 10:30 | Mason McTavish’s snap shot from 11 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance | +6% CBJ | – |
| 8 | P3 10:27 | Jonatan Berggren scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 23% chance | +24% STL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Blue Jackets 18% · Blues 82%
- Final margin
- Blues by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for the Blues
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Blues by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Blue Jackets 40% · Blues 60% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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