2026-27 regular season · October 6, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Mammoth at Devils, Oct 6, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Mammoth beat the Devils 5–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P2, 7:55 left): Nick Schmaltz scored on a wrist shot from 12 feet, worth 19 points of win probability to the Mammoth.
Final
 Utah Mammoth | 5 |
|---|---|
 New Jersey Devils | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Mammoth lucky · −33 Devils
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Mammoth win 7, Devils win 3.
- 1 UTA 7 NJD 1
- 2 UTA 5 NJD 1
- 3 UTA 3 NJD 0
- 4 UTA 4 NJD 1
- 5 UTA 5 NJD 3
- 6 UTA 2 NJD 1
- 7 UTA 3 NJD 2
- 8 UTA 1 NJD 2
- 9 UTA 1 NJD 3
- 10 UTA 1 NJD 4
Our prediction before puck drop
We had it even, a coin flip. The Mammoth won by 2. The final margin was 2.0 goals from ours; 39% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mammoth win | 49.2% |
| Devils win | 50.8% |
| Middle 50%: Mammoth by 2 to Devils by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Mammoth by 4 to Devils by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Mammoth by 4 to Devils by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Devils by 1 | 21.0% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 1 | 20.2% |
| Exactly Devils by 3 | 12.0% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 3 | 11.3% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 2 | 10.1% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 6, 5:12 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Mammoth win 67% of them, Devils 33%. The line is what actually happened: Mammoth by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Mammoth by 3+ | 37.9% |
| Mammoth by 2 | 10.5% |
| Mammoth by 1 | 18.7% |
| Devils by 1 | 18.6% |
| Devils by 2 | 5.8% |
| Devils by 3+ | 8.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mammoth | 45 | 5 | 3.69 | +1.31 |
 Devils | 44 | 3 | 2.58 | +0.42 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 19:50 | High sticking on the Devils (Timo Meier): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% UTA |
| P1 15:49 | Cross checking on the Mammoth (Dmitri Simashev): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NJD |
| P1 12:48 | Tripping on the Devils (Brenden Dillon): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% UTA |
| P1 8:23 | Roughing on the Mammoth (MacKenzie Weegar): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NJD |
| P1 7:55 | Hooking on the Mammoth (Lawson Crouse): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NJD |
| P2 9:10 | Tripping on the Devils (Timo Meier): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% UTA |
| P2 4:01 | Slashing on the Mammoth (MacKenzie Weegar): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% NJD |
| P3 14:24 | Roughing on the Devils (Brenden Dillon): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% UTA |
| P3 1:14 | Holding on the Mammoth (MacKenzie Weegar): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% NJD |
When it happened
Devils’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:03 | Clayton Keller scored on a slap shot from 33 feetShooting · 8% chance | +15% UTA | – |
| 2 | P1 7:37 | Luke Evangelista scored on a tip from 12 feetShooting · 9% chance | +16% NJD | – |
| 3 | P2 18:18 | MacKenzie Weegar scored on a backhand shot from 7 feetShooting · 3% chance | +19% UTA | – |
| 4 | P2 13:29 | Luke Evangelista scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 7% chance | +19% NJD | – |
| 5 | P2 7:55 | Nick Schmaltz scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 13% chance | +19% UTA | – |
| 6 | P2 0:57 | Lawson Crouse scored on a tip from 2 feetShooting · 32% chance | +11% UTA | – |
| 7 | P3 10:11 | Jesper Boqvist scored on a backhand shot from 15 feetShooting · 8% chance | +13% NJD | – |
| 8 | P3 3:08 | Vincent Trocheck scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 15% chance | +7% UTA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Mammoth 86% · Devils 14%
- Final margin
- Mammoth by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for the Mammoth
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Mammoth by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Mammoth 67% · Devils 33% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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