luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · October 5, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flyers at Lightning, Oct 5, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Lightning beat the Flyers 4–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Flyers had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 15 points of win probability to the Flyers.

The biggest swing (P1, 3:55 left): Brayden Point scored on a tip from 13 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Lightning.

Final

Philadelphia Flyers 1
Tampa Bay Lightning 4

October 5, 2026 · Benchmark International Arena

Our prediction before puck drop: Lightning by 0.7

Luck index +20 Lightning about even · −20 Flyers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flyers win 2, Lightning win 8.

  1. 1 PHI 4 TBL 2
  2. 2 PHI 4 TBL 3
  3. 3 PHI 4 TBL 5
  4. 4 PHI 3 TBL 5
  5. 5 PHI 1 TBL 3
  6. 6 PHI 2 TBL 5
  7. 7 PHI 3 TBL 6
  8. 8 PHI 3 TBL 7
  9. 9 PHI 0 TBL 5
  10. 10 PHI 1 TBL 8

Our prediction before puck drop

We had the Lightning by 0.7, 62% to win. The Lightning won by 3: the pick was right. The final margin was 2.3 goals from ours; 33% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Flyers win37.8%
Lightning win62.2%
Middle 50%: Flyers by 1 to Lightning by 350%
Middle 90%: Flyers by 3 to Lightning by 490%
Middle 95%: Flyers by 4 to Lightning by 595%
Exactly Lightning by 122.4%
Exactly Flyers by 117.5%
Exactly Lightning by 315.7%
Exactly Lightning by 211.5%
Exactly Flyers by 37.9%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Mon, Oct 5, 6:54 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Flyers win 20% of them, Lightning 80%. The line is what actually happened: Lightning by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flyers by 3+3.8%
Flyers by 23.2%
Flyers by 113.2%
Lightning by 114.5%
Lightning by 211.4%
Lightning by 3+53.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 goals to the Flyers: the final margin was Lightning by 3, without the luck Lightning by 3.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flyers2511.63−0.63
Lightning4934.18−1.18

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 14:25 Tripping on the Flyers (Owen Tippett): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TBL
P1 7:54 High sticking on the Flyers (Trevor Zegras): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TBL
P2 10:03 Roughing on the Lightning (Charle-Edouard D'Astous): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P2 1:33 High sticking on the Lightning (Anthony Cirelli): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PHI
P3 16:50 High sticking on the Flyers (Matvei Michkov): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TBL
P3 6:27 Elbowing on the Lightning (Brandon Hagel): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PHI

When it happened

Lightning’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Lightning were ahead in it, below while the Flyers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 3:55 Brayden Point scored on a tip from 13 feetShooting · 7% chance +16% TBL –
2 P2 19:43 Pontus Holmberg scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 6% chance +13% TBL –
3 P2 12:38 Tyson Foerster scored on a wrist shot from 38 feetShooting · 4% chance +14% PHI –
4 P2 1:33 High sticking on the Lightning (Anthony Cirelli): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% PHI –
5 P3 16:50 High sticking on the Flyers (Matvei Michkov): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% TBL –
6 P3 6:27 Elbowing on the Lightning (Brandon Hagel): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% PHI –
7 P3 5:37 Tyson Foerster missed the net with a deflected shot from 7 feetShooting · 12% chance +4% TBL –
8 P3 3:00 Ilya Mikheyev scored on a wraparound from 4 feetShooting · 4% chance +7% TBL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flyers 2% · Lightning 98%

Final margin
Lightning by 3
Luck in goals
0.8 for the Flyers
Luck-adjusted margin
Lightning by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Flyers 20% · Lightning 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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