2026-27 regular season · October 10, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Flyers at Bruins, Oct 10, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Bruins beat the Flyers 5–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 7:39 left): Pavel Zacha scored on a wrist shot from 40 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Bruins.
Final
 Philadelphia Flyers | 1 |
|---|---|
 Boston Bruins | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Bruins about even · −23 Flyers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Flyers win 2, Bruins win 8.
- 1 PHI 2 BOS 0
- 2 PHI 3 BOS 2
- 3 PHI 1 BOS 2
- 4 PHI 0 BOS 1
- 5 PHI 3 BOS 5
- 6 PHI 1 BOS 4
- 7 PHI 0 BOS 3
- 8 PHI 0 BOS 4
- 9 PHI 1 BOS 5
- 10 PHI 1 BOS 7
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Bruins by 0.5, 58% to win. The Bruins won by 4: the pick was right. The final margin was 3.5 goals from ours; 10% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Flyers win | 42.0% |
| Bruins win | 58.0% |
| Middle 50%: Flyers by 1 to Bruins by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Flyers by 4 to Bruins by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Flyers by 4 to Bruins by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Bruins by 1 | 22.0% |
| Exactly Flyers by 1 | 18.6% |
| Exactly Bruins by 3 | 14.3% |
| Exactly Bruins by 2 | 10.9% |
| Exactly Flyers by 3 | 9.1% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 10, 12:07 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Flyers win 23% of them, Bruins 77%. The line is what actually happened: Bruins by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Flyers by 3+ | 3.1% |
| Flyers by 2 | 4.0% |
| Flyers by 1 | 16.3% |
| Bruins by 1 | 18.1% |
| Bruins by 2 | 13.3% |
| Bruins by 3+ | 45.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Flyers | 28 | 1 | 1.20 | −0.20 |
 Bruins | 46 | 5 | 3.15 | +1.85 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 10:36 | Tripping on the Bruins (Pavel Zacha): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PHI |
| P2 13:05 | Holding the stick on the Flyers (Noel Acciari): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BOS |
| P2 1:05 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Bruins (Connor Clifton): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% PHI |
| P2 0:48 | High sticking on the Flyers (Tyson Foerster): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% BOS |
| P3 13:44 | Tripping on the Bruins (Will Borgen): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% PHI |
When it happened
Bruins’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 10:36 | Tripping on the Bruins (Pavel Zacha): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% PHI | – |
| 2 | P1 7:39 | Pavel Zacha scored on a wrist shot from 40 feetShooting · 4% chance | +16% BOS | – |
| 3 | P2 13:05 | Holding the stick on the Flyers (Noel Acciari): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% BOS | – |
| 4 | P2 2:48 | Mason Lohrei scored on a wrist shot from 32 feetShooting · 6% chance | +14% BOS | – |
| 5 | P2 1:05 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Bruins (Connor Clifton): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +2% PHI | – |
| 6 | P3 18:05 | Marat Khusnutdinov scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 14% chance | +5% BOS | – |
| 7 | P3 13:28 | Porter Martone scored on a wrist shot from 22 feetShooting · 7% chance | +4% PHI | – |
| 8 | P3 10:39 | Casey Mittelstadt scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 20% chance | +3% BOS | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Flyers 7% · Bruins 93%
- Final margin
- Bruins by 4
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for the Bruins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bruins by 2.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Flyers 23% · Bruins 77% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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