2026-27 season · in progress
Tampa Bay Lightning, 2026-27: game by game
The Lightning are 0–1–0 (0 points) so far in 2026-27; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 0.2 points. Luck cost them 0.2: the 10th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 0–0; in overtime 0–0, in the shootout 0–0.
Every game
How often the Lightning win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ Rangers | L 1–5 | 47% | −47 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck, with the win chance and the range of likely margins.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Lightning win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 · Oct 3 | vs Capitals |  Lightning by 0.5 | 58% |
| Week 2 · Oct 5 | vs Flyers | Lightning by 0.7 | 61% |
| Week 2 · Oct 8 | vs Wild | Lightning by 0.1 | 52% |
| Week 2 · Oct 10 | at Islanders | Lightning by 0.1 | 52% |
| Week 3 · Oct 13 | at Rangers |  Rangers by 0.1 | 49% |
| Week 3 · Oct 15 | vs Kraken | Lightning by 0.5 | 58% |
| Week 3 · Oct 17 | vs Canucks | Lightning by 1.0 | 66% |
| Week 4 · Oct 20 | at Golden Knights |  Golden Knights by 0.6 | 40% |
| Week 4 · Oct 23 | at Avalanche |  Avalanche by 0.7 | 38% |
| Week 4 · Oct 24 | at Mammoth |  Mammoth by 0.4 | 44% |
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Lightning’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Empty-net goals | +1.1 |
| Goaltending | −1.1 |
| Shooting | −1.3 |