2025-26 season · final
Tampa Bay Lightning, 2025-26: game by game
The Lightning went 50–26–6 (106 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 105.1 points. Luck added 0.9: the 10th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 15–16; in overtime 6–4, in the shootout 4–2.
Playoffs: 3–4.
Every game
How often the Lightning win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | vs Senators | L 4–5 | 43% | −43 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Devils | L 3–5 | 32% | −32 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | @ Bruins | W 4–3 | 57% | +43 | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | @ Capitals | L 2–3 | 47% | −47 | OT |
| Oct 17, 2025 | @ Red Wings | L 1–2 | 54% | −54 | OT |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Blue Jackets | L 2–3 | 32% | −32 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | vs Blackhawks | L 2–3 | 53% | −53 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Ducks | W 4–3 | 73% | +27 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs Golden Knights | W 2–1 | 64% | +36 | OT |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @ Predators | W 5–2 | 71% | +29 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | vs Stars | W 2–1 | 68% | +32 | OT |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ Mammoth | W 4–2 | 43% | +57 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ Avalanche | L 2–3 | 24% | −24 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | @ Golden Knights | W 6–3 | 60% | +40 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Capitals | W 3–2 | 40% | +60 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Rangers | L 3–7 | 63% | −63 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Panthers | W 3–1 | 56% | +44 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs Canucks | L 2–6 | 76% | −76 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vs Devils | W 5–1 | 58% | +42 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vs Oilers | W 2–1 | 69% | +31 | OT |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Capitals | W 5–3 | 30% | +70 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs Flyers | W 3–0 | 68% | +32 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Flames | W 5–1 | 44% | +56 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Red Wings | W 6–3 | 45% | +55 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Rangers | W 4–1 | 76% | +24 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | @ Islanders | L 1–2 | 66% | −66 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | vs Penguins | L 3–4 | 60% | −60 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Islanders | L 0–2 | 66% | −66 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | @ Maple Leafs | L 0–2 | 45% | −45 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | @ Canadiens | W 6–1 | 42% | +58 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | @ Devils | W 8–4 | 45% | +55 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ Islanders | L 2–3 | 70% | −70 | SO |
| Dec 15, 2025 | vs Panthers | L 2–5 | 48% | −48 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vs Kings | L 1–2 | 70% | −70 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Hurricanes | W 6–4 | 71% | +29 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | vs Blues | W 4–1 | 56% | +44 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | @ Panthers | W 4–2 | 31% | +69 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs Canadiens | W 5–4 | 35% | +65 | SO |
| Dec 31, 2025 | @ Ducks | W 4–3 | 48% | +52 | OT |
| Jan 1, 2026 | @ Kings | W 5–3 | 50% | +50 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ Sharks | W 7–3 | 62% | +38 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | vs Avalanche | W 4–2 | 54% | +46 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @ Flyers | W 7–2 | 64% | +36 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | @ Flyers | W 5–1 | 74% | +26 | |
| Jan 13, 2026 | @ Penguins | W 2–1 | 49% | +51 | SO |
| Jan 16, 2026 | @ Blues | L 2–3 | 71% | −71 | SO |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @ Stars | W 4–1 | 53% | +47 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | vs Sharks | W 4–1 | 72% | +28 | |
| Jan 23, 2026 | @ Blackhawks | W 2–1 | 78% | +22 | SO |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @ Blue Jackets | L 5–8 | 40% | −40 | |
| Jan 26, 2026 | vs Mammoth | W 2–0 | 48% | +52 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vs Jets | W 4–1 | 63% | +37 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vs Bruins | W 6–5 | 47% | +53 | SO |
| Feb 3, 2026 | vs Sabres | W 4–3 | 58% | +42 | OT |
| Feb 5, 2026 | vs Panthers | W 6–1 | 49% | +51 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | vs Maple Leafs | W 4–2 | 72% | +28 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | L 4–5 | 55% | −55 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vs Sabres | L 2–6 | 38% | −38 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | @ Wild | L 1–5 | 44% | −44 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | @ Jets | L 1–4 | 40% | −40 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | @ Maple Leafs | W 5–2 | 55% | +45 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | @ Sabres | L 7–8 | 52% | −52 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vs Blue Jackets | L 2–5 | 25% | −25 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | vs Red Wings | W 4–1 | 59% | +41 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | L 2–4 | 40% | −40 | |
| Mar 17, 2026 | @ Kraken | W 6–2 | 64% | +36 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | @ Canucks | W 6–2 | 69% | +31 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @ Oilers | W 5–2 | 58% | +42 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | @ Flames | L 3–4 | 55% | −55 | OT |
| Mar 24, 2026 | vs Wild | W 6–3 | 63% | +37 | |
| Mar 26, 2026 | vs Kraken | L 3–4 | 59% | −59 | OT |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Senators | W 4–2 | 49% | +51 | |
| Mar 29, 2026 | vs Predators | W 3–2 | 59% | +41 | |
| Mar 31, 2026 | vs Canadiens | L 1–4 | 65% | −65 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | vs Penguins | W 6–3 | 69% | +31 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | vs Bruins | W 3–1 | 40% | +60 | |
| Apr 6, 2026 | @ Sabres | L 2–4 | 39% | −39 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | @ Senators | L 2–6 | 30% | −30 | |
| Apr 9, 2026 | @ Canadiens | L 1–2 | 29% | −29 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | @ Bruins | W 2–1 | 54% | +46 | |
| Apr 13, 2026 | vs Red Wings | W 4–3 | 53% | +47 | OT |
| Apr 15, 2026 | vs Rangers | L 2–4 | 61% | −61 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vs Canadiens | L 3–4 | 45% | −45 | OT |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vs Canadiens | W 3–2 | 43% | +57 | OT |
| Apr 24, 2026 | @ Canadiens | L 2–3 | 46% | −46 | OT |
| Apr 26, 2026 | @ Canadiens | W 3–2 | 61% | +39 | |
| Apr 29, 2026 | vs Canadiens | L 2–3 | 45% | −45 | |
| May 1, 2026 | @ Canadiens | W 1–0 | 57% | +43 | OT |
| May 3, 2026 | vs Canadiens | L 1–2 | 75% | −75 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Lightning’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Goaltending | +6.2 |
| Shooting | +4.8 |
| Shootout | +2.0 |
| Overtime | +1.9 |
| Empty-net goals | −2.2 |