Matchday 5 · Premier League 2026-27 · September 20, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Leeds 0–0 Crystal Palace: lucky or expected?
Leeds and Crystal Palace drew 0–0. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Leeds win 8 of 10, Crystal Palace 0, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Leeds were expected to score 2.1 here and Crystal Palace 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Leeds United | 0 |
 Crystal Palace | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index −36 Leeds unlucky for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Leeds win 8, 2 end level, Crystal Palace win 0.
- 1 LEE 1 CRY 0
- 2 LEE 2 CRY 1
- 3 LEE 1 CRY 0
- 4 LEE 3 CRY 1
- 5 LEE 2 CRY 0
- 6 LEE 3 CRY 0
- 7 LEE 3 CRY 0
- 8 LEE 4 CRY 0
- 9 LEE 1 CRY 1
- 10 LEE 1 CRY 1
Our prediction before kickoff
We had Leeds 49% to win, 26% for a draw, Crystal Palace 25%. It ended level; we gave a draw 26%. The final margin was 0.5 goals from ours; 51% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
No goals: Leeds and Crystal Palace drew 0–0, and the replay above is of that scoreline’s chance (86% for Leeds, draws counted half).
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 5, 2026-27
- Brentford 3–0 Chelsea Sep 18, 2026 · replay 67% for Brentford
- Tottenham 2–3 Aston Villa Sep 19, 2026 · replay 59% for Aston Villa
- Everton 1–0 Ipswich Sep 19, 2026 · replay 73% for Everton
- Brighton 3–0 Arsenal Sep 19, 2026 · replay 68% for Brighton
- Newcastle 2–1 Hull Sep 19, 2026 · replay 50% for Newcastle
- Forest 0–1 Coventry Sep 19, 2026 · replay 39% for Coventry
- Bournemouth 0–1 Liverpool Sep 20, 2026 · replay 52% for Liverpool
- Man City 5–3 Sunderland Sep 20, 2026 · replay 79% for Man City
- Fulham 1–1 Man United Sep 20, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws