Matchday 7 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · October 18, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Heidenheim 2–2 Werder: lucky or expected?
Heidenheim and Werder drew 2–2. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Heidenheim win 4 of 10, Werder 3, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Heidenheim were expected to score 1.5 here and Werder 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 1. FC Heidenheim | 2 |
 Werder Bremen | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index −3 Heidenheim about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Heidenheim win 4, 3 end level, Werder win 3.
- 1 FCH 1 SVW 0
- 2 FCH 2 SVW 1
- 3 FCH 3 SVW 1
- 4 FCH 4 SVW 1
- 5 FCH 1 SVW 1
- 6 FCH 1 SVW 1
- 7 FCH 1 SVW 1
- 8 FCH 1 SVW 3
- 9 FCH 0 SVW 1
- 10 FCH 1 SVW 2
The goals
Heidenheim’s chance of winning
As low as 6% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 50' | Marco Gruell (Werder) | 0–1 | +31% Werder |
| 2. 67' | Stefan Schimmer (Heidenheim) | 1–1 | +37% Heidenheim |
| 3. 69' | Jens Stage (Werder) | 1–2 | +37% Werder |
| 4. 83' | Jonas Föhrenbach (Heidenheim) | 2–2 | +45% Heidenheim |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 7, 2025-26
- Union Berlin 3–1 Gladbach Oct 17, 2025 · replay 55% for Union Berlin
- Leipzig 2–1 HSV Oct 18, 2025 · replay 71% for Leipzig
- Köln 1–1 Augsburg Oct 18, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Mainz 3–4 Leverkusen Oct 18, 2025 · replay 58% for Leverkusen
- Wolfsburg 0–3 Stuttgart Oct 18, 2025 · replay 66% for Stuttgart
- Bayern 2–1 Dortmund Oct 18, 2025 · replay 69% for Bayern
- Freiburg 2–2 Frankfurt Oct 19, 2025 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- St. Pauli 0–3 Hoffenheim Oct 19, 2025 · replay 70% for Hoffenheim