Matchday 8 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · October 25, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Hoffenheim 3–1 Heidenheim: lucky or expected?
Hoffenheim beat Heidenheim 3–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Hoffenheim win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Hoffenheim were expected to score 2.5 here and Heidenheim 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 TSG Hoffenheim | 3 |
 1. FC Heidenheim | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +24 Hoffenheim about even · −24 Heidenheim
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Hoffenheim win 7, 2 end level, Heidenheim win 1.
- 1 TSG 1 FCH 0
- 2 TSG 1 FCH 0
- 3 TSG 3 FCH 1
- 4 TSG 2 FCH 0
- 5 TSG 3 FCH 0
- 6 TSG 4 FCH 1
- 7 TSG 7 FCH 2
- 8 TSG 0 FCH 0
- 9 TSG 1 FCH 1
- 10 TSG 1 FCH 2
The goals
Hoffenheim’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 18' | Fisnik Asllani (Hoffenheim) | 1–0 | +22% Hoffenheim |
| 2. 45+2' | Tim Lemperle (Hoffenheim) | 2–0 | +13% Hoffenheim |
| 3. 63' | Andrej Kramaric (Hoffenheim) | 3–0 | +2% Hoffenheim |
| 4. 75' | Stefan Schimmer (Heidenheim) | 3–1 | +1% Heidenheim |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Hoffenheim win 76% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 8, 2025-26
- Werder 1–0 Union Berlin Oct 24, 2025 · replay 51% for Werder
- Augsburg 0–6 Leipzig Oct 25, 2025 · replay 59% for Leipzig
- HSV 0–1 Wolfsburg Oct 25, 2025 · replay 40% for Wolfsburg
- Frankfurt 2–0 St. Pauli Oct 25, 2025 · replay 70% for Frankfurt
- Gladbach 0–3 Bayern Oct 25, 2025 · replay 81% for Bayern
- Dortmund 1–0 Köln Oct 25, 2025 · replay 80% for Dortmund
- Leverkusen 2–0 Freiburg Oct 26, 2025 · replay 67% for Leverkusen
- Stuttgart 2–1 Mainz Oct 26, 2025 · replay 70% for Stuttgart