Matchday 9 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · November 1, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Leipzig 3–1 Stuttgart: lucky or expected?
Leipzig beat Stuttgart 3–1, but the goals call it even: Leipzig win 4 of 10, Stuttgart 4, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Leipzig were expected to score 1.9 here and Stuttgart 1.8. An own goal helped Leipzig.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 RB Leipzig | 3 |
 VfB Stuttgart | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +48 Leipzig lucky · −48 Stuttgart
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Leipzig win 4, 2 end level, Stuttgart win 4.
- 1 RBL 1 VFB 0
- 2 RBL 1 VFB 0
- 3 RBL 3 VFB 1
- 4 RBL 4 VFB 1
- 5 RBL 1 VFB 1
- 6 RBL 1 VFB 1
- 7 RBL 1 VFB 4
- 8 RBL 0 VFB 2
- 9 RBL 0 VFB 1
- 10 RBL 1 VFB 2
The goals
Leipzig’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 45' | Jeff Chabot (Leipzig, own goal) | 1–0 | +27% Leipzig |
| 2. 53' | Yan Diomande (Leipzig) | 2–0 | +13% Leipzig |
| 3. 65' | Tiago Tomás (Stuttgart) | 2–1 | +11% Stuttgart |
| 90+1' | Rômulo (Leipzig) | 3–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Leipzig win 52% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 9, 2025-26
- Augsburg 0–1 Dortmund Oct 31, 2025 · replay 70% for Dortmund
- St. Pauli 0–4 Gladbach Nov 1, 2025 · replay 54% for Gladbach
- Heidenheim 1–1 Frankfurt Nov 1, 2025 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Union Berlin 0–0 Freiburg Nov 1, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Mainz 1–1 Werder Nov 1, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Bayern 3–0 Leverkusen Nov 1, 2025 · replay 76% for Bayern
- Köln 4–1 HSV Nov 2, 2025 · replay 55% for Köln
- Wolfsburg 2–3 Hoffenheim Nov 2, 2025 · replay 64% for Hoffenheim