Matchday 24 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · March 1, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Stuttgart 4–0 Wolfsburg: lucky or expected?
Stuttgart beat Wolfsburg 4–0, and the goals lean Stuttgart’s way: 7 wins in 10, 1 for Wolfsburg, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Stuttgart were expected to score 2.5 here and Wolfsburg 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 VfB Stuttgart | 4 |
 VfL Wolfsburg | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +25 Stuttgart lucky · −25 Wolfsburg
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Stuttgart win 7, 2 end level, Wolfsburg win 1.
- 1 VFB 2 WOB 1
- 2 VFB 5 WOB 4
- 3 VFB 3 WOB 1
- 4 VFB 3 WOB 1
- 5 VFB 3 WOB 0
- 6 VFB 4 WOB 1
- 7 VFB 5 WOB 0
- 8 VFB 1 WOB 1
- 9 VFB 1 WOB 1
- 10 VFB 2 WOB 3
The goals
Stuttgart’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 21' | Deniz Undav (Stuttgart) | 1–0 | +23% Stuttgart |
| 2. 30' | Jamie Leweling (Stuttgart) | 2–0 | +14% Stuttgart |
| 3. 42' | Jamie Leweling (Stuttgart) | 3–0 | +4% Stuttgart |
| 90+5' | Nikolas Nartey (Stuttgart) | 4–0 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Stuttgart win 75% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 24, 2025-26
- Augsburg 2–0 Köln Feb 27, 2026 · replay 56% for Augsburg
- Werder 2–0 Heidenheim Feb 28, 2026 · replay 58% for Werder
- Gladbach 1–0 Union Berlin Feb 28, 2026 · replay 57% for Gladbach
- Leverkusen 1–1 Mainz Feb 28, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Hoffenheim 0–1 St. Pauli Feb 28, 2026 · replay 21% for St. Pauli
- Dortmund 2–3 Bayern Feb 28, 2026 · replay 61% for Bayern
- Frankfurt 2–0 Freiburg Mar 1, 2026 · replay 57% for Frankfurt
- HSV 1–2 Leipzig Mar 1, 2026 · replay 60% for Leipzig