Matchday 26 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · March 14, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Leverkusen 1–1 Bayern: lucky or expected?
Leverkusen and Bayern drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Leverkusen win 2 of 10, Bayern 6, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Leverkusen were expected to score 1.9 here and Bayern 3.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Bayer Leverkusen | 1 |
 Bayern Munich | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +18 Leverkusen about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Leverkusen win 2, 2 end level, Bayern win 6.
- 1 B04 3 FCB 2
- 2 B04 4 FCB 2
- 3 B04 3 FCB 3
- 4 B04 3 FCB 3
- 5 B04 1 FCB 6
- 6 B04 0 FCB 3
- 7 B04 2 FCB 5
- 8 B04 0 FCB 2
- 9 B04 2 FCB 3
- 10 B04 0 FCB 1
The goals
Leverkusen’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 6' | Aleix Garcia (Leverkusen) | 1–0 | +21% Leverkusen |
| 2. 69' | Luis Diaz (Bayern) | 1–1 | +36% Bayern |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 26, 2025-26
- Gladbach 2–0 St. Pauli Mar 13, 2026 · replay 66% for Gladbach
- Hoffenheim 1–1 Wolfsburg Mar 14, 2026 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Dortmund 2–0 Augsburg Mar 14, 2026 · replay 79% for Dortmund
- Frankfurt 1–0 Heidenheim Mar 14, 2026 · replay 68% for Frankfurt
- HSV 1–1 Köln Mar 14, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Werder 0–2 Mainz Mar 15, 2026 · replay 54% for Mainz
- Freiburg 0–1 Union Berlin Mar 15, 2026 · replay 39% for Union Berlin
- Stuttgart 1–0 Leipzig Mar 15, 2026 · replay 58% for Stuttgart