Matchday 4 · Bundesliga 2026-27 · September 20, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Schalke 0–0 Elversberg: lucky or expected?
Schalke and Elversberg drew 0–0. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Schalke win 3 of 10, Elversberg 4, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Schalke were expected to score 1.0 here and Elversberg 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Schalke 04 | 0 |
 SV Elversberg | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index 0 Schalke about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Schalke win 3, 3 end level, Elversberg win 4.
- 1 S04 1 SVE 0
- 2 S04 3 SVE 2
- 3 S04 2 SVE 0
- 4 S04 1 SVE 1
- 5 S04 0 SVE 0
- 6 S04 0 SVE 0
- 7 S04 1 SVE 4
- 8 S04 3 SVE 5
- 9 S04 2 SVE 3
- 10 S04 0 SVE 1
Our prediction before kickoff
We had Schalke 43% to win, 27% for a draw, Elversberg 31%. It ended level; we gave a draw 27%. The final margin was 0.3 goals from ours; 73% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
No goals: Schalke and Elversberg drew 0–0, and the replay above is of that scoreline’s chance (50% for Schalke, draws counted half).
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 4, 2026-27
- Bayern 7–0 Union Berlin Sep 18, 2026 · replay 93% for Bayern
- HSV 2–1 Köln Sep 19, 2026 · replay 65% for HSV
- Gladbach 3–4 Mainz Sep 19, 2026 · replay 52% for Mainz
- Werder 3–2 Augsburg Sep 19, 2026 · replay 63% for Werder
- Frankfurt 2–2 Freiburg Sep 19, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Stuttgart 0–1 Dortmund Sep 19, 2026 · replay 52% for Dortmund
- Leverkusen 2–0 Leipzig Sep 20, 2026 · replay 48% for Leverkusen
- Paderborn 3–1 Hoffenheim Sep 20, 2026 · replay 61% for Paderborn