Final · Euro 2020 · July 11, 2021 · pens
Italy 1–1 England: who deserved to win?
Italy went through on penalties after 1–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Italy go through 8 times in 10. Italy made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.4.
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +19 Italy about even · −19 England
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Italy win 6, 3 end level, England win 1.
- 1 ITA 1 ENG 0
- 2 ITA 1 ENG 0
- 3 ITA 1 ENG 0
- 4 ITA 2 ENG 0
- 5 ITA 3 ENG 1
- 6 ITA 4 ENG 0
- 7 ITA 1 ENG 1
- 8 ITA 1 ENG 1
- 9 ITA 0 ENG 0
- 10 ITA 0 ENG 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Italy win 65%, 25% end level, England win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Draw after 90 minutes.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Italy by 3+ | 14.4% |
| Italy by 2 | 20.6% |
| Italy by 1 | 29.7% |
| Draw | 25.3% |
| England by 1 | 8.4% |
| England by 2 | 1.3% |
| England by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Italy | 19 | 1 | 2.08 | −1.08 |
 England | 6 | 1 | 0.43 | +0.57 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 1' | Luke Shaw scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 66' | Leonardo Bonucci scored from a shot | 0.82 |
When it happened
Italy’s chance of winning
As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Luke Shaw scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +20% ENG |
| 2 | 45' | Ciro Immobile didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% ENG |
| 3 | 66' | Marco Verratti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +7% ENG |
| 4 | 66' | Leonardo Bonucci scored from a shotFinishing · 82% chance | +7% ITA |
| 5 | 72' | Domenico Berardi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +8% ENG |
| 6 | ET 102' | Andrea Belotti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% ENG |
| 7 | Pens 120' | Italy won the penalty shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips | +50% ITA |
| 8 | ET 120' | Bryan Cristante didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% ENG |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). This tie went to penalties: after 90 minutes it stood 1–1. Italy go through in 81% of replays (a draw counted as half).