Semi-finals · World Cup 2022 · December 13, 2022
Argentina 3–0 Croatia: who deserved to win?
Argentina beat Croatia 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Argentina go through 9 times in 10. Argentina made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.4.
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +8 Argentina about even · −8 Croatia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Argentina win 8, 1 ends level, Croatia win 1.
- 1 ARG 2 CRO 1
- 2 ARG 1 CRO 0
- 3 ARG 2 CRO 0
- 4 ARG 2 CRO 0
- 5 ARG 2 CRO 0
- 6 ARG 4 CRO 1
- 7 ARG 4 CRO 0
- 8 ARG 5 CRO 0
- 9 ARG 0 CRO 0
- 10 ARG 1 CRO 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Argentina win 82%, 14% end level, Croatia win 4%. The line is what actually happened: Argentina by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Argentina by 3+ | 34.4% |
| Argentina by 2 | 24.4% |
| Argentina by 1 | 23.1% |
| Draw | 14.2% |
| Croatia by 1 | 3.3% |
| Croatia by 2 | 0.7% |
| Croatia by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Argentina | 9 (1 pen) | 3 | 1.86 | +1.14 |
 Croatia | 12 | 0 | 0.41 | −0.41 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 33' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 38' | Julián Álvarez scored from a shot | 0.36 |
| 68' | Julián Álvarez scored from a shot | 0.33 |
When it happened
Argentina’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24' | Enzo Fernandez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% CRO |
| 2 | 30' | Ivan Perišić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% ARG |
| 3 | 33' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% ARG |
| 4 | 38' | Julián Álvarez scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +9% ARG |
| 5 | 44' | Luka Modrić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +0% ARG |
| 6 | 44' | Mario Pašalić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +1% ARG |
| 7 | 61' | Dejan Lovren didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% ARG |
| 8 | 68' | Julián Álvarez scored from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +1% ARG |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Argentina go through in 92% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from semi-finals, 2022
- France 2–0 Morocco Dec 14, 2022 · replay 80% for France