Third-place play-off · World Cup 2022 · December 17, 2022
Croatia 2–1 Morocco: who deserved to win?
Croatia beat Morocco 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: Croatia go through 5 times in 10. The chances were close to even (0.8 expected goals to 1.0).
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +48 Croatia lucky · −48 Morocco
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Croatia win 4, 3 end level, Morocco win 3.
- 1 CRO 2 MAR 1
- 2 CRO 1 MAR 0
- 3 CRO 2 MAR 0
- 4 CRO 2 MAR 0
- 5 CRO 0 MAR 0
- 6 CRO 0 MAR 0
- 7 CRO 0 MAR 0
- 8 CRO 0 MAR 2
- 9 CRO 1 MAR 2
- 10 CRO 0 MAR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Croatia win 36%, 32% end level, Morocco win 32%. The line is what actually happened: Croatia by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Croatia by 3+ | 3.9% |
| Croatia by 2 | 9.8% |
| Croatia by 1 | 22.6% |
| Draw | 32.2% |
| Morocco by 1 | 20.6% |
| Morocco by 2 | 8.0% |
| Morocco by 3+ | 2.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Croatia | 12 | 2 | 0.85 | +1.15 |
 Morocco | 9 | 1 | 0.99 | +0.01 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Joško Gvardiol scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 8' | Achraf Dari scored from a shot | 0.42 |
| 41' | Mislav Oršić scored from a shot | 0.01 |
When it happened
Croatia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Joško Gvardiol scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +21% CRO |
| 2 | 8' | Achraf Dari scored from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +14% MAR |
| 3 | 17' | Mislav Oršić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% MAR |
| 4 | 17' | Andrej Kramarić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% MAR |
| 5 | 41' | Mislav Oršić scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +30% CRO |
| 6 | 74' | Youssef En-Nesyri didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +7% CRO |
| 7 | 89' | Youssef En-Nesyri didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% CRO |
| 8 | 95' | Youssef En-Nesyri didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +6% CRO |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Croatia go through in 52% of replays (a draw counted as half).