Final · World Cup 2022 · December 18, 2022 · pens
Argentina 3–3 France: who deserved to win?
Argentina went through on penalties after 3–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Argentina go through 7 times in 10. Argentina made the better chances: 2.8 expected goals to 2.3.
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +28 Argentina lucky · −28 France
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Argentina win 6, 2 end level, France win 2.
- 1 ARG 2 FRA 1
- 2 ARG 3 FRA 2
- 3 ARG 1 FRA 0
- 4 ARG 3 FRA 1
- 5 ARG 2 FRA 0
- 6 ARG 4 FRA 1
- 7 ARG 1 FRA 1
- 8 ARG 3 FRA 3
- 9 ARG 0 FRA 2
- 10 ARG 1 FRA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Argentina win 61%, 22% end level, France win 18%. The line is what actually happened: Draw after 90 minutes.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Argentina by 3+ | 17.2% |
| Argentina by 2 | 17.8% |
| Argentina by 1 | 25.6% |
| Draw | 21.8% |
| France by 1 | 12.0% |
| France by 2 | 4.3% |
| France by 3+ | 1.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Argentina | 20 (1 pen) | 3 | 2.76 | +0.24 |
 France | 10 (2 pen) | 3 | 2.27 | +0.73 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 22' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 35' | Ángel Fabián Di María Hernández scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 79' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 80' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 107' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shot | 0.49 |
| 117' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Argentina’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35' | Ángel Fabián Di María Hernández scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +10% ARG |
| 2 | 80' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +40% FRA |
| 3 | ET 104' | Lautaro Javier Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +9% FRA |
| 4 | ET 105' | Lautaro Javier Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% FRA |
| 5 | ET 107' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +22% ARG |
| 6 | ET 117' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +10% FRA |
| 7 | Pens 120' | Argentina won the penalty shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips | +50% ARG |
| 8 | ET 122' | Randal Kolo Muani didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +14% ARG |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). This tie went to penalties: after 90 minutes it stood 2–2. Argentina go through in 72% of replays (a draw counted as half).