Matchday 1 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · August 23, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Frankfurt 4–1 Werder: lucky or expected?
Frankfurt beat Werder 4–1, and the goals lean Frankfurt’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Werder, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Frankfurt were expected to score 2.1 here and Werder 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 |
 Werder Bremen | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +34 Frankfurt lucky · −34 Werder
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Frankfurt win 6, 2 end level, Werder win 2.
- 1 SGE 1 SVW 0
- 2 SGE 1 SVW 0
- 3 SGE 2 SVW 0
- 4 SGE 3 SVW 1
- 5 SGE 4 SVW 1
- 6 SGE 4 SVW 0
- 7 SGE 1 SVW 1
- 8 SGE 2 SVW 2
- 9 SGE 2 SVW 4
- 10 SGE 1 SVW 2
The goals
Frankfurt’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 22' | Can Uzun (Frankfurt) | 1–0 | +23% Frankfurt |
| 2. 25' | Jean-Matteo Bahoya (Frankfurt) | 2–0 | +14% Frankfurt |
| 3. 47' | Jean-Matteo Bahoya (Frankfurt) | 3–0 | +4% Frankfurt |
| 4. 48' | Justin Njinmah (Werder) | 3–1 | +4% Werder |
| 5. 70' | Ansgar Knauff (Frankfurt) | 4–1 | +1% Frankfurt |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Frankfurt win 66% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2025-26
- Bayern 6–0 Leipzig Aug 22, 2025 · replay 76% for Bayern
- Heidenheim 1–3 Wolfsburg Aug 23, 2025 · replay 49% for Wolfsburg
- Union Berlin 2–1 Stuttgart Aug 23, 2025 · replay 36% for Union Berlin
- Leverkusen 1–2 Hoffenheim Aug 23, 2025 · replay 44% for Hoffenheim
- Freiburg 1–3 Augsburg Aug 23, 2025 · replay 41% for Augsburg
- St. Pauli 3–3 Dortmund Aug 23, 2025 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Mainz 0–1 Köln Aug 24, 2025 · replay 40% for Köln
- Gladbach 0–0 HSV Aug 24, 2025 · drawn; replay 30% draws