Matchday 1 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · August 23, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Leverkusen 1–2 Hoffenheim: lucky or expected?
Hoffenheim beat Leverkusen 2–1, but the goals lean toward Leverkusen: 4 wins in 10 to Hoffenheim’s 4, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Leverkusen were expected to score 1.9 here and Hoffenheim 1.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Bayer Leverkusen | 1 |
 TSG Hoffenheim | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +56 Hoffenheim lucky · −56 Leverkusen
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Leverkusen win 4, 2 end level, Hoffenheim win 4.
- 1 B04 2 TSG 1
- 2 B04 2 TSG 1
- 3 B04 3 TSG 1
- 4 B04 3 TSG 0
- 5 B04 1 TSG 1
- 6 B04 0 TSG 0
- 7 B04 2 TSG 5
- 8 B04 0 TSG 2
- 9 B04 0 TSG 1
- 10 B04 1 TSG 2
The goals
Leverkusen’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 6' | Jarell Quansah (Leverkusen) | 1–0 | +21% Leverkusen |
| 2. 25' | Fisnik Asllani (Hoffenheim) | 1–1 | +23% Hoffenheim |
| 3. 52' | Tim Lemperle (Hoffenheim) | 1–2 | +31% Hoffenheim |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Hoffenheim win 44% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2025-26
- Bayern 6–0 Leipzig Aug 22, 2025 · replay 76% for Bayern
- Heidenheim 1–3 Wolfsburg Aug 23, 2025 · replay 49% for Wolfsburg
- Frankfurt 4–1 Werder Aug 23, 2025 · replay 66% for Frankfurt
- Union Berlin 2–1 Stuttgart Aug 23, 2025 · replay 36% for Union Berlin
- Freiburg 1–3 Augsburg Aug 23, 2025 · replay 41% for Augsburg
- St. Pauli 3–3 Dortmund Aug 23, 2025 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Mainz 0–1 Köln Aug 24, 2025 · replay 40% for Köln
- Gladbach 0–0 HSV Aug 24, 2025 · drawn; replay 30% draws