Matchday 2 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · August 30, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Hoffenheim 1–3 Frankfurt: lucky or expected?
Frankfurt beat Hoffenheim 3–1, but the goals lean toward Hoffenheim: 5 wins in 10 to Frankfurt’s 3, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Hoffenheim were expected to score 2.3 here and Frankfurt 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 TSG Hoffenheim | 1 |
 Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +63 Frankfurt very lucky · −63 Hoffenheim
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Hoffenheim win 5, 2 end level, Frankfurt win 3.
- 1 TSG 3 SGE 2
- 2 TSG 3 SGE 2
- 3 TSG 4 SGE 2
- 4 TSG 5 SGE 2
- 5 TSG 4 SGE 0
- 6 TSG 0 SGE 0
- 7 TSG 1 SGE 1
- 8 TSG 0 SGE 2
- 9 TSG 1 SGE 2
- 10 TSG 1 SGE 2
The goals
Hoffenheim’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 17' | Ritsu Doan (Frankfurt) | 0–1 | +24% Frankfurt |
| 2. 27' | Ritsu Doan (Frankfurt) | 0–2 | +18% Frankfurt |
| 3. 51' | Can Uzun (Frankfurt) | 0–3 | +5% Frankfurt |
| 90+1' | Grischa Proemel (Hoffenheim) | 1–3 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Frankfurt win 37% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2025-26
- HSV 0–2 St. Pauli Aug 29, 2025 · replay 34% for St. Pauli
- Leipzig 2–0 Heidenheim Aug 30, 2025 · replay 76% for Leipzig
- Stuttgart 1–0 Gladbach Aug 30, 2025 · replay 73% for Stuttgart
- Werder 3–3 Leverkusen Aug 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Augsburg 2–3 Bayern Aug 30, 2025 · replay 80% for Bayern
- Wolfsburg 1–1 Mainz Aug 31, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Dortmund 3–0 Union Berlin Aug 31, 2025 · replay 81% for Dortmund
- Köln 4–1 Freiburg Aug 31, 2025 · replay 51% for Köln