Matchday 2 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · August 31, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Wolfsburg 1–1 Mainz: lucky or expected?
Wolfsburg and Mainz drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Wolfsburg win 3 of 10, Mainz 4, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Wolfsburg were expected to score 1.4 here and Mainz 1.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 VfL Wolfsburg | 1 |
 Mainz 05 | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +2 Wolfsburg about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Wolfsburg win 3, 3 end level, Mainz win 4.
- 1 WOB 2 M05 1
- 2 WOB 1 M05 0
- 3 WOB 3 M05 0
- 4 WOB 1 M05 1
- 5 WOB 2 M05 2
- 6 WOB 0 M05 0
- 7 WOB 0 M05 3
- 8 WOB 0 M05 2
- 9 WOB 0 M05 1
- 10 WOB 0 M05 1
The goals
Wolfsburg’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 9' | Aaron Zehnter (Wolfsburg) | 1–0 | +21% Wolfsburg |
| 2. 89' | Nadiem Amiri (Mainz, penalty) | 1–1 | +49% Mainz |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 2, 2025-26
- HSV 0–2 St. Pauli Aug 29, 2025 · replay 34% for St. Pauli
- Leipzig 2–0 Heidenheim Aug 30, 2025 · replay 76% for Leipzig
- Stuttgart 1–0 Gladbach Aug 30, 2025 · replay 73% for Stuttgart
- Hoffenheim 1–3 Frankfurt Aug 30, 2025 · replay 37% for Frankfurt
- Werder 3–3 Leverkusen Aug 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Augsburg 2–3 Bayern Aug 30, 2025 · replay 80% for Bayern
- Dortmund 3–0 Union Berlin Aug 31, 2025 · replay 81% for Dortmund
- Köln 4–1 Freiburg Aug 31, 2025 · replay 51% for Köln