Matchday 3 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · September 13, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Freiburg 3–1 Stuttgart: lucky or expected?
Freiburg beat Stuttgart 3–1, but the goals lean toward Stuttgart: 5 wins in 10 to Freiburg’s 3, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Freiburg were expected to score 1.5 here and Stuttgart 2.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 SC Freiburg | 3 |
 VfB Stuttgart | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +59 Freiburg lucky · −59 Stuttgart
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Freiburg win 3, 2 end level, Stuttgart win 5.
- 1 SCF 2 VFB 1
- 2 SCF 1 VFB 0
- 3 SCF 3 VFB 0
- 4 SCF 2 VFB 2
- 5 SCF 1 VFB 1
- 6 SCF 0 VFB 3
- 7 SCF 0 VFB 2
- 8 SCF 0 VFB 2
- 9 SCF 0 VFB 1
- 10 SCF 1 VFB 2
The goals
Freiburg’s chance of winning
As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 20' | Ermedin Demirovic (Stuttgart) | 0–1 | +25% Stuttgart |
| 2. 81' | Igor Matanovic (Freiburg) | 1–1 | +44% Freiburg |
| 3. 86' | Derry Scherhant (Freiburg) | 2–1 | +46% Freiburg |
| 90+2' | Igor Matanovic (Freiburg, penalty) | 3–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Freiburg win 41% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2025-26
- Leverkusen 3–1 Frankfurt Sep 12, 2025 · replay 64% for Leverkusen
- Heidenheim 0–2 Dortmund Sep 13, 2025 · replay 77% for Dortmund
- Union Berlin 2–4 Hoffenheim Sep 13, 2025 · replay 62% for Hoffenheim
- Wolfsburg 3–3 Köln Sep 13, 2025 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Mainz 0–1 Leipzig Sep 13, 2025 · replay 57% for Leipzig
- Bayern 5–0 HSV Sep 13, 2025 · replay 87% for Bayern
- St. Pauli 2–1 Augsburg Sep 14, 2025 · replay 46% for St. Pauli
- Gladbach 0–4 Werder Sep 14, 2025 · replay 38% for Werder