Matchday 3 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · September 13, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Mainz 0–1 Leipzig: lucky or expected?
Leipzig beat Mainz 1–0, and the goals lean Leipzig’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Mainz, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Mainz were expected to score 1.3 here and Leipzig 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Mainz 05 | 0 |
 RB Leipzig | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +43 Leipzig lucky · −43 Mainz
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Mainz win 3, 3 end level, Leipzig win 4.
- 1 M05 1 RBL 0
- 2 M05 3 RBL 2
- 3 M05 3 RBL 0
- 4 M05 1 RBL 1
- 5 M05 2 RBL 2
- 6 M05 2 RBL 2
- 7 M05 0 RBL 3
- 8 M05 0 RBL 2
- 9 M05 0 RBL 1
- 10 M05 0 RBL 1
The goals
Mainz’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 40' | Johan Bakayoko (Leipzig) | 0–1 | +28% Leipzig |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Leipzig win 57% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2025-26
- Leverkusen 3–1 Frankfurt Sep 12, 2025 · replay 64% for Leverkusen
- Freiburg 3–1 Stuttgart Sep 13, 2025 · replay 41% for Freiburg
- Heidenheim 0–2 Dortmund Sep 13, 2025 · replay 77% for Dortmund
- Union Berlin 2–4 Hoffenheim Sep 13, 2025 · replay 62% for Hoffenheim
- Wolfsburg 3–3 Köln Sep 13, 2025 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Bayern 5–0 HSV Sep 13, 2025 · replay 87% for Bayern
- St. Pauli 2–1 Augsburg Sep 14, 2025 · replay 46% for St. Pauli
- Gladbach 0–4 Werder Sep 14, 2025 · replay 38% for Werder