luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Matchday 4 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · September 20, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Hoffenheim 1–4 Bayern: lucky or expected?

Bayern beat Hoffenheim 4–1, and the goals lean Bayern’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Hoffenheim, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Hoffenheim were expected to score 1.9 here and Bayern 3.0.

Full time

Goals
TSG Hoffenheim 1
Bayern Munich 4

September 20, 2025

Luck index +32 Bayern lucky · −32 Hoffenheim

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Hoffenheim win 2, 2 end level, Bayern win 6.

  1. 1 TSG 3 FCB 2
  2. 2 TSG 3 FCB 1
  3. 3 TSG 2 FCB 2
  4. 4 TSG 2 FCB 2
  5. 5 TSG 1 FCB 6
  6. 6 TSG 1 FCB 4
  7. 7 TSG 3 FCB 5
  8. 8 TSG 2 FCB 4
  9. 9 TSG 2 FCB 3
  10. 10 TSG 1 FCB 2

The goals

Hoffenheim’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Hoffenheim was ahead in it, below while Bayern was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 44' Harry Kane (Bayern) 0–1 +29% Bayern
2. 48' Harry Kane (Bayern, penalty) 0–2 +16% Bayern
3. 77' Harry Kane (Bayern, penalty) 0–3 +1% Bayern
4. 82' Vladimir Coufal (Hoffenheim) 1–3 +1% Hoffenheim
90+9' Serge Gnabry (Bayern) 1–4

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Bayern win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 4 matches, 2025-26 · Hoffenheim · Bayern

More from matchday 4, 2025-26

Every match of matchday 4, 2025-26