Matchday 4 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · September 21, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Leverkusen 1–1 Gladbach: lucky or expected?
Leverkusen and Gladbach drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Leverkusen win 6 of 10, Gladbach 2, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Leverkusen were expected to score 2.0 here and Gladbach 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Bayer Leverkusen | 1 |
 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index −22 Leverkusen about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Leverkusen win 6, 2 end level, Gladbach win 2.
- 1 B04 1 BMG 0
- 2 B04 1 BMG 0
- 3 B04 2 BMG 1
- 4 B04 3 BMG 1
- 5 B04 3 BMG 0
- 6 B04 5 BMG 1
- 7 B04 0 BMG 0
- 8 B04 1 BMG 1
- 9 B04 0 BMG 2
- 10 B04 0 BMG 1
The goals
Leverkusen’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 70' | Malik Tillman (Leverkusen) | 1–0 | +36% Leverkusen |
| 90+2' | Haris Tabakovic (Gladbach) | 1–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 4, 2025-26
- Stuttgart 2–0 St. Pauli Sep 19, 2025 · replay 81% for Stuttgart
- HSV 2–1 Heidenheim Sep 20, 2025 · replay 64% for HSV
- Hoffenheim 1–4 Bayern Sep 20, 2025 · replay 68% for Bayern
- Augsburg 1–4 Mainz Sep 20, 2025 · replay 47% for Mainz
- Werder 0–3 Freiburg Sep 20, 2025 · replay 55% for Freiburg
- Leipzig 3–1 Köln Sep 20, 2025 · replay 70% for Leipzig
- Frankfurt 3–4 Union Berlin Sep 21, 2025 · replay 38% for Union Berlin
- Dortmund 1–0 Wolfsburg Sep 21, 2025 · replay 82% for Dortmund