Matchday 5 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · September 28, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Köln 1–2 Stuttgart: lucky or expected?
Stuttgart beat Köln 2–1, and the goals lean Stuttgart’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Köln, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Köln were expected to score 1.5 here and Stuttgart 2.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 1. FC Köln | 1 |
 VfB Stuttgart | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +37 Stuttgart lucky · −37 Köln
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Köln win 3, 2 end level, Stuttgart win 5.
- 1 KOE 3 VFB 2
- 2 KOE 4 VFB 3
- 3 KOE 3 VFB 1
- 4 KOE 2 VFB 2
- 5 KOE 2 VFB 2
- 6 KOE 0 VFB 4
- 7 KOE 0 VFB 2
- 8 KOE 0 VFB 2
- 9 KOE 2 VFB 3
- 10 KOE 2 VFB 3
The goals
Köln’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 4' | Jakub Kaminski (Köln) | 1–0 | +21% Köln |
| 2. 28' | Ermedin Demirovic (Stuttgart, penalty) | 1–1 | +24% Stuttgart |
| 3. 81' | Josha Vagnoman (Stuttgart) | 1–2 | +44% Stuttgart |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Stuttgart win 63% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 5, 2025-26
- Bayern 4–0 Werder Sep 26, 2025 · replay 90% for Bayern
- Mainz 0–2 Dortmund Sep 27, 2025 · replay 68% for Dortmund
- Wolfsburg 0–1 Leipzig Sep 27, 2025 · replay 63% for Leipzig
- St. Pauli 1–2 Leverkusen Sep 27, 2025 · replay 70% for Leverkusen
- Heidenheim 2–1 Augsburg Sep 27, 2025 · replay 46% for Heidenheim
- Gladbach 4–6 Frankfurt Sep 27, 2025 · replay 51% for Frankfurt
- Freiburg 1–1 Hoffenheim Sep 28, 2025 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Union Berlin 0–0 HSV Sep 28, 2025 · drawn; replay 29% draws