Matchday 5 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · September 27, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Mainz 0–2 Dortmund: lucky or expected?
Dortmund beat Mainz 2–0, and the goals lean Dortmund’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Mainz, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Mainz were expected to score 0.9 here and Dortmund 1.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Mainz 05 | 0 |
 Borussia Dortmund | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +32 Dortmund lucky · −32 Mainz
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Mainz win 2, 3 end level, Dortmund win 5.
- 1 M05 1 BVB 0
- 2 M05 2 BVB 0
- 3 M05 1 BVB 1
- 4 M05 2 BVB 2
- 5 M05 1 BVB 1
- 6 M05 0 BVB 3
- 7 M05 1 BVB 3
- 8 M05 0 BVB 2
- 9 M05 1 BVB 2
- 10 M05 0 BVB 1
The goals
Mainz’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 27' | Daniel Svensson (Dortmund) | 0–1 | +26% Dortmund |
| 2. 40' | Karim Adeyemi (Dortmund) | 0–2 | +17% Dortmund |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Dortmund win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 5, 2025-26
- Bayern 4–0 Werder Sep 26, 2025 · replay 90% for Bayern
- Wolfsburg 0–1 Leipzig Sep 27, 2025 · replay 63% for Leipzig
- St. Pauli 1–2 Leverkusen Sep 27, 2025 · replay 70% for Leverkusen
- Heidenheim 2–1 Augsburg Sep 27, 2025 · replay 46% for Heidenheim
- Gladbach 4–6 Frankfurt Sep 27, 2025 · replay 51% for Frankfurt
- Freiburg 1–1 Hoffenheim Sep 28, 2025 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Köln 1–2 Stuttgart Sep 28, 2025 · replay 63% for Stuttgart
- Union Berlin 0–0 HSV Sep 28, 2025 · drawn; replay 29% draws