Matchday 6 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · October 4, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Dortmund 1–1 Leipzig: lucky or expected?
Dortmund and Leipzig drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Dortmund win 5 of 10, Leipzig 3, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Dortmund were expected to score 2.0 here and Leipzig 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Borussia Dortmund | 1 |
 RB Leipzig | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index −16 Dortmund about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Dortmund win 5, 2 end level, Leipzig win 3.
- 1 BVB 2 RBL 1
- 2 BVB 1 RBL 0
- 3 BVB 2 RBL 0
- 4 BVB 3 RBL 1
- 5 BVB 3 RBL 0
- 6 BVB 2 RBL 2
- 7 BVB 1 RBL 1
- 8 BVB 1 RBL 3
- 9 BVB 2 RBL 3
- 10 BVB 0 RBL 1
The goals
Dortmund’s chance of winning
As low as 31% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 7' | Christoph Baumgartner (Leipzig) | 0–1 | +23% Leipzig |
| 2. 23' | Yan Couto (Dortmund) | 1–1 | +25% Dortmund |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 6, 2025-26
- Hoffenheim 0–1 Köln Oct 3, 2025 · replay 30% for Köln
- Leverkusen 2–0 Union Berlin Oct 4, 2025 · replay 72% for Leverkusen
- Augsburg 3–1 Wolfsburg Oct 4, 2025 · replay 60% for Augsburg
- Werder 1–0 St. Pauli Oct 4, 2025 · replay 59% for Werder
- Frankfurt 0–3 Bayern Oct 4, 2025 · replay 75% for Bayern
- Stuttgart 1–0 Heidenheim Oct 5, 2025 · replay 78% for Stuttgart
- HSV 4–0 Mainz Oct 5, 2025 · replay 52% for HSV
- Gladbach 0–0 Freiburg Oct 5, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws