Matchday 6 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · October 5, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Stuttgart 1–0 Heidenheim: lucky or expected?
Stuttgart beat Heidenheim 1–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Stuttgart win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Stuttgart were expected to score 2.6 here and Heidenheim 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 VfB Stuttgart | 1 |
 1. FC Heidenheim | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +22 Stuttgart about even · −22 Heidenheim
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Stuttgart win 7, 2 end level, Heidenheim win 1.
- 1 VFB 1 FCH 0
- 2 VFB 4 FCH 3
- 3 VFB 3 FCH 1
- 4 VFB 2 FCH 0
- 5 VFB 3 FCH 0
- 6 VFB 4 FCH 1
- 7 VFB 6 FCH 1
- 8 VFB 2 FCH 2
- 9 VFB 1 FCH 1
- 10 VFB 2 FCH 3
The goals
Stuttgart’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 65' | Bilal El Khannouss (Stuttgart) | 1–0 | +34% Stuttgart |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Stuttgart win 78% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 6, 2025-26
- Hoffenheim 0–1 Köln Oct 3, 2025 · replay 30% for Köln
- Leverkusen 2–0 Union Berlin Oct 4, 2025 · replay 72% for Leverkusen
- Augsburg 3–1 Wolfsburg Oct 4, 2025 · replay 60% for Augsburg
- Werder 1–0 St. Pauli Oct 4, 2025 · replay 59% for Werder
- Dortmund 1–1 Leipzig Oct 4, 2025 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Frankfurt 0–3 Bayern Oct 4, 2025 · replay 75% for Bayern
- HSV 4–0 Mainz Oct 5, 2025 · replay 52% for HSV
- Gladbach 0–0 Freiburg Oct 5, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws