Matchday 11 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · November 22, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Dortmund 3–3 Stuttgart: lucky or expected?
Dortmund and Stuttgart drew 3–3. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Dortmund win 5 of 10, Stuttgart 3, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Dortmund were expected to score 2.0 here and Stuttgart 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Borussia Dortmund | 3 |
 VfB Stuttgart | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index −12 Dortmund about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Dortmund win 5, 2 end level, Stuttgart win 3.
- 1 BVB 2 VFB 1
- 2 BVB 2 VFB 1
- 3 BVB 3 VFB 1
- 4 BVB 3 VFB 0
- 5 BVB 5 VFB 1
- 6 BVB 0 VFB 0
- 7 BVB 1 VFB 1
- 8 BVB 1 VFB 3
- 9 BVB 1 VFB 2
- 10 BVB 1 VFB 2
The goals
Dortmund’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 34' | Emre Can (Dortmund, penalty) | 1–0 | +25% Dortmund |
| 2. 41' | Maximilian Beier (Dortmund) | 2–0 | +13% Dortmund |
| 3. 47' | Deniz Undav (Stuttgart) | 2–1 | +13% Stuttgart |
| 4. 71' | Deniz Undav (Stuttgart) | 2–2 | +37% Stuttgart |
| 5. 89' | Karim Adeyemi (Dortmund) | 3–2 | +49% Dortmund |
| 90+1' | Deniz Undav (Stuttgart) | 3–3 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 11, 2025-26
- Mainz 1–1 Hoffenheim Nov 21, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Heidenheim 0–3 Gladbach Nov 22, 2025 · replay 53% for Gladbach
- Augsburg 1–0 HSV Nov 22, 2025 · replay 56% for Augsburg
- Bayern 6–2 Freiburg Nov 22, 2025 · replay 84% for Bayern
- Wolfsburg 1–3 Leverkusen Nov 22, 2025 · replay 64% for Leverkusen
- Köln 3–4 Frankfurt Nov 22, 2025 · replay 51% for Frankfurt
- Leipzig 2–0 Werder Nov 23, 2025 · replay 76% for Leipzig
- St. Pauli 0–1 Union Berlin Nov 23, 2025 · replay 52% for Union Berlin