Matchday 11 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · November 21, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Mainz 1–1 Hoffenheim: lucky or expected?
Mainz and Hoffenheim drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Mainz win 3 of 10, Hoffenheim 4, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Mainz were expected to score 1.4 here and Hoffenheim 1.7. An own goal helped Hoffenheim.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Mainz 05 | 1 |
 TSG Hoffenheim | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +7 Mainz about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Mainz win 3, 3 end level, Hoffenheim win 4.
- 1 M05 4 TSG 3
- 2 M05 3 TSG 2
- 3 M05 2 TSG 0
- 4 M05 2 TSG 2
- 5 M05 2 TSG 2
- 6 M05 2 TSG 2
- 7 M05 2 TSG 5
- 8 M05 0 TSG 2
- 9 M05 0 TSG 1
- 10 M05 0 TSG 1
The goals
Mainz’s chance of winning
As low as 11% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 8' | Andreas Hanche-Olsen (Hoffenheim, own goal) | 0–1 | +23% Hoffenheim |
| 2. 76' | Danny da Costa (Mainz) | 1–1 | +41% Mainz |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 11, 2025-26
- Heidenheim 0–3 Gladbach Nov 22, 2025 · replay 53% for Gladbach
- Augsburg 1–0 HSV Nov 22, 2025 · replay 56% for Augsburg
- Dortmund 3–3 Stuttgart Nov 22, 2025 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Bayern 6–2 Freiburg Nov 22, 2025 · replay 84% for Bayern
- Wolfsburg 1–3 Leverkusen Nov 22, 2025 · replay 64% for Leverkusen
- Köln 3–4 Frankfurt Nov 22, 2025 · replay 51% for Frankfurt
- Leipzig 2–0 Werder Nov 23, 2025 · replay 76% for Leipzig
- St. Pauli 0–1 Union Berlin Nov 23, 2025 · replay 52% for Union Berlin