Matchday 12 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · November 30, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Frankfurt 1–1 Wolfsburg: lucky or expected?
Frankfurt and Wolfsburg drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Frankfurt win 5 of 10, Wolfsburg 3, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Frankfurt were expected to score 2.3 here and Wolfsburg 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 |
 VfL Wolfsburg | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index −14 Frankfurt about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Frankfurt win 5, 2 end level, Wolfsburg win 3.
- 1 SGE 2 WOB 1
- 2 SGE 2 WOB 1
- 3 SGE 3 WOB 1
- 4 SGE 4 WOB 1
- 5 SGE 4 WOB 0
- 6 SGE 1 WOB 1
- 7 SGE 0 WOB 0
- 8 SGE 1 WOB 4
- 9 SGE 0 WOB 1
- 10 SGE 0 WOB 1
The goals
Frankfurt’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 67' | Aaron Zehnter (Wolfsburg) | 0–1 | +37% Wolfsburg |
| 90+6' | Michy Batshuayi (Frankfurt, penalty) | 1–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 12, 2025-26
- Gladbach 0–0 Leipzig Nov 28, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Werder 1–1 Köln Nov 29, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Union Berlin 1–2 Heidenheim Nov 29, 2025 · replay 37% for Heidenheim
- Hoffenheim 3–0 Augsburg Nov 29, 2025 · replay 70% for Hoffenheim
- Bayern 3–1 St. Pauli Nov 29, 2025 · replay 92% for Bayern
- Leverkusen 1–2 Dortmund Nov 29, 2025 · replay 54% for Dortmund
- HSV 2–1 Stuttgart Nov 30, 2025 · replay 37% for HSV
- Freiburg 4–0 Mainz Nov 30, 2025 · replay 56% for Freiburg