luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Matchday 12 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · November 30, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Freiburg 4–0 Mainz: lucky or expected?

Freiburg beat Mainz 4–0, and the goals lean Freiburg’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Mainz, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Freiburg were expected to score 1.5 here and Mainz 1.3.

Full time

Goals
SC Freiburg 4
Mainz 05 0

November 30, 2025

Luck index +44 Freiburg lucky · −44 Mainz

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Freiburg win 4, 3 end level, Mainz win 3.

  1. 1 SCF 2 M05 1
  2. 2 SCF 2 M05 1
  3. 3 SCF 2 M05 0
  4. 4 SCF 3 M05 0
  5. 5 SCF 1 M05 1
  6. 6 SCF 2 M05 2
  7. 7 SCF 1 M05 1
  8. 8 SCF 1 M05 3
  9. 9 SCF 0 M05 1
  10. 10 SCF 0 M05 1

The goals

Freiburg’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Freiburg was ahead in it, below while Mainz was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 12' Lukas Kübler (Freiburg) 1–0 +21% Freiburg
2. 26' Vincenzo Grifo (Freiburg) 2–0 +14% Freiburg
3. 50' Johan Manzambi (Freiburg) 3–0 +4% Freiburg
4. 90' Patrick Osterhage (Freiburg) 4–0 +0% Freiburg

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Freiburg win 56% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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