Matchday 13 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · December 6, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Heidenheim 2–1 Freiburg: lucky or expected?
Heidenheim beat Freiburg 2–1, but the goals lean toward Freiburg: 5 wins in 10 to Heidenheim’s 3, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Heidenheim were expected to score 1.5 here and Freiburg 1.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 1. FC Heidenheim | 2 |
 SC Freiburg | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +57 Heidenheim lucky · −57 Freiburg
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Heidenheim win 3, 2 end level, Freiburg win 5.
- 1 FCH 2 SCF 1
- 2 FCH 3 SCF 2
- 3 FCH 4 SCF 1
- 4 FCH 2 SCF 2
- 5 FCH 2 SCF 2
- 6 FCH 0 SCF 4
- 7 FCH 1 SCF 4
- 8 FCH 0 SCF 2
- 9 FCH 1 SCF 2
- 10 FCH 2 SCF 3
The goals
Heidenheim’s chance of winning
As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 40' | Johan Manzambi (Freiburg) | 0–1 | +28% Freiburg |
| 2. 58' | Patrick Mainka (Heidenheim) | 1–1 | +33% Heidenheim |
| 90+4' | Stefan Schimmer (Heidenheim) | 2–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Heidenheim win 43% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 13, 2025-26
- Mainz 0–1 Gladbach Dec 5, 2025 · replay 40% for Gladbach
- Stuttgart 0–5 Bayern Dec 6, 2025 · replay 66% for Bayern
- Wolfsburg 3–1 Union Berlin Dec 6, 2025 · replay 52% for Wolfsburg
- Augsburg 2–0 Leverkusen Dec 6, 2025 · replay 40% for Augsburg
- Köln 1–1 St. Pauli Dec 6, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Leipzig 6–0 Frankfurt Dec 6, 2025 · replay 63% for Leipzig
- HSV 3–2 Werder Dec 7, 2025 · replay 62% for HSV
- Dortmund 2–0 Hoffenheim Dec 7, 2025 · replay 65% for Dortmund