Matchday 13 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · December 6, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Leipzig 6–0 Frankfurt: lucky or expected?
Leipzig beat Frankfurt 6–0, and the goals lean Leipzig’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Frankfurt, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Leipzig were expected to score 2.2 here and Frankfurt 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 RB Leipzig | 6 |
 Eintracht Frankfurt | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +37 Leipzig lucky · −37 Frankfurt
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Leipzig win 5, 2 end level, Frankfurt win 3.
- 1 RBL 1 SGE 0
- 2 RBL 2 SGE 1
- 3 RBL 2 SGE 0
- 4 RBL 6 SGE 3
- 5 RBL 4 SGE 0
- 6 RBL 1 SGE 1
- 7 RBL 1 SGE 1
- 8 RBL 2 SGE 4
- 9 RBL 2 SGE 3
- 10 RBL 2 SGE 3
The goals
Leipzig’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 5' | Conrad Harder (Leipzig) | 1–0 | +21% Leipzig |
| 2. 31' | Christoph Baumgartner (Leipzig) | 2–0 | +14% Leipzig |
| 3. 47' | Yan Diomande (Leipzig) | 3–0 | +4% Leipzig |
| 4. 55' | Yan Diomande (Leipzig) | 4–0 | +1% Leipzig |
| 5. 62' | David Raum (Leipzig, penalty) | 5–0 | +0% Leipzig |
| 6. 65' | Yan Diomande (Leipzig) | 6–0 | +0% Leipzig |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Leipzig win 63% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 13, 2025-26
- Mainz 0–1 Gladbach Dec 5, 2025 · replay 40% for Gladbach
- Stuttgart 0–5 Bayern Dec 6, 2025 · replay 66% for Bayern
- Wolfsburg 3–1 Union Berlin Dec 6, 2025 · replay 52% for Wolfsburg
- Heidenheim 2–1 Freiburg Dec 6, 2025 · replay 43% for Heidenheim
- Augsburg 2–0 Leverkusen Dec 6, 2025 · replay 40% for Augsburg
- Köln 1–1 St. Pauli Dec 6, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- HSV 3–2 Werder Dec 7, 2025 · replay 62% for HSV
- Dortmund 2–0 Hoffenheim Dec 7, 2025 · replay 65% for Dortmund