Matchday 14 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · December 12, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Union Berlin 3–1 Leipzig: lucky or expected?
Union Berlin beat Leipzig 3–1, but the goals lean toward Leipzig: 5 wins in 10 to Union Berlin’s 3, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Union Berlin were expected to score 1.3 here and Leipzig 1.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Union Berlin | 3 |
 RB Leipzig | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +61 Union Berlin very lucky · −61 Leipzig
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Union Berlin win 3, 2 end level, Leipzig win 5.
- 1 FCU 1 RBL 0
- 2 FCU 2 RBL 0
- 3 FCU 4 RBL 1
- 4 FCU 1 RBL 1
- 5 FCU 2 RBL 2
- 6 FCU 0 RBL 3
- 7 FCU 1 RBL 3
- 8 FCU 1 RBL 2
- 9 FCU 1 RBL 2
- 10 FCU 0 RBL 1
The goals
Union Berlin’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 57' | Oliver Burke (Union Berlin) | 1–0 | +31% Union Berlin |
| 2. 60' | Tidiam Gomis (Leipzig) | 1–1 | +32% Leipzig |
| 3. 63' | Ilyas Ansah (Union Berlin) | 2–1 | +33% Union Berlin |
| 90+3' | Tim Skarke (Union Berlin) | 3–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Union Berlin win 39% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 14, 2025-26
- Frankfurt 1–0 Augsburg Dec 13, 2025 · replay 60% for Frankfurt
- Gladbach 1–3 Wolfsburg Dec 13, 2025 · replay 40% for Wolfsburg
- St. Pauli 2–1 Heidenheim Dec 13, 2025 · replay 56% for St. Pauli
- Hoffenheim 4–1 HSV Dec 13, 2025 · replay 71% for Hoffenheim
- Leverkusen 2–0 Köln Dec 13, 2025 · replay 71% for Leverkusen
- Freiburg 1–1 Dortmund Dec 14, 2025 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Bayern 2–2 Mainz Dec 14, 2025 · drawn; replay 13% draws
- Werder 0–4 Stuttgart Dec 14, 2025 · replay 69% for Stuttgart