Matchday 14 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · December 13, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
St. Pauli 2–1 Heidenheim: lucky or expected?
St. Pauli beat Heidenheim 2–1, and the goals lean St. Pauli’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Heidenheim, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, St. Pauli were expected to score 1.5 here and Heidenheim 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 FC St. Pauli | 2 |
 1. FC Heidenheim | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +44 St. Pauli lucky · −44 Heidenheim
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. St. Pauli win 4, 3 end level, Heidenheim win 3.
- 1 STP 1 FCH 0
- 2 STP 1 FCH 0
- 3 STP 2 FCH 0
- 4 STP 3 FCH 0
- 5 STP 2 FCH 2
- 6 STP 1 FCH 1
- 7 STP 1 FCH 1
- 8 STP 2 FCH 4
- 9 STP 1 FCH 2
- 10 STP 1 FCH 2
The goals
St. Pauli’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 35' | Martijn Kaars (St. Pauli) | 1–0 | +25% St. Pauli |
| 2. 53' | Martijn Kaars (St. Pauli) | 2–0 | +13% St. Pauli |
| 3. 64' | Marvin Pieringer (Heidenheim) | 2–1 | +11% Heidenheim |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. St. Pauli win 56% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 14, 2025-26
- Union Berlin 3–1 Leipzig Dec 12, 2025 · replay 39% for Union Berlin
- Frankfurt 1–0 Augsburg Dec 13, 2025 · replay 60% for Frankfurt
- Gladbach 1–3 Wolfsburg Dec 13, 2025 · replay 40% for Wolfsburg
- Hoffenheim 4–1 HSV Dec 13, 2025 · replay 71% for Hoffenheim
- Leverkusen 2–0 Köln Dec 13, 2025 · replay 71% for Leverkusen
- Freiburg 1–1 Dortmund Dec 14, 2025 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Bayern 2–2 Mainz Dec 14, 2025 · drawn; replay 13% draws
- Werder 0–4 Stuttgart Dec 14, 2025 · replay 69% for Stuttgart