luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Matchday 21 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · February 7, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Heidenheim 0–2 HSV: lucky or expected?

HSV beat Heidenheim 2–0, but the goals call it even: HSV win 4 of 10, Heidenheim 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Heidenheim were expected to score 1.3 here and HSV 1.5.

Full time

Goals
1. FC Heidenheim 0
Hamburger SV 2

February 7, 2026

Luck index +47 HSV lucky · −47 Heidenheim

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Heidenheim win 3, 3 end level, HSV win 4.

  1. 1 FCH 4 HSV 3
  2. 2 FCH 2 HSV 1
  3. 3 FCH 2 HSV 0
  4. 4 FCH 1 HSV 1
  5. 5 FCH 1 HSV 1
  6. 6 FCH 2 HSV 2
  7. 7 FCH 1 HSV 4
  8. 8 FCH 0 HSV 2
  9. 9 FCH 0 HSV 1
  10. 10 FCH 2 HSV 3

The goals

Heidenheim’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Heidenheim was ahead in it, below while HSV was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 45+3' Ransford-Yeboah Koenigsdoerffer (HSV) 0–1 +30% HSV
2. 78' Rayan Philippe (HSV) 0–2 +9% HSV

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. HSV win 53% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 21 matches, 2025-26 · Heidenheim · HSV

More from matchday 21, 2025-26

Every match of matchday 21, 2025-26