Matchday 21 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · February 8, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Köln 1–2 Leipzig: lucky or expected?
Leipzig beat Köln 2–1, and the goals lean Leipzig’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Köln, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Köln were expected to score 1.4 here and Leipzig 1.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 1. FC Köln | 1 |
 RB Leipzig | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +40 Leipzig lucky · −40 Köln
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Köln win 3, 2 end level, Leipzig win 5.
- 1 KOE 1 RBL 0
- 2 KOE 3 RBL 2
- 3 KOE 2 RBL 0
- 4 KOE 1 RBL 1
- 5 KOE 2 RBL 2
- 6 KOE 0 RBL 4
- 7 KOE 1 RBL 3
- 8 KOE 0 RBL 2
- 9 KOE 0 RBL 1
- 10 KOE 1 RBL 2
The goals
Köln’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 29' | Christoph Baumgartner (Leipzig) | 0–1 | +26% Leipzig |
| 2. 51' | Jan Thielmann (Köln) | 1–1 | +31% Köln |
| 3. 56' | Christoph Baumgartner (Leipzig) | 1–2 | +33% Leipzig |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Leipzig win 60% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 21, 2025-26
- Union Berlin 1–1 Frankfurt Feb 6, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- St. Pauli 2–1 Stuttgart Feb 7, 2026 · replay 28% for St. Pauli
- Heidenheim 0–2 HSV Feb 7, 2026 · replay 53% for HSV
- Freiburg 1–0 Werder Feb 7, 2026 · replay 65% for Freiburg
- Wolfsburg 1–2 Dortmund Feb 7, 2026 · replay 74% for Dortmund
- Mainz 2–0 Augsburg Feb 7, 2026 · replay 59% for Mainz
- Gladbach 1–1 Leverkusen Feb 7, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Bayern 5–1 Hoffenheim Feb 8, 2026 · replay 76% for Bayern