luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Matchday 22 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · February 14, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

HSV 3–2 Union Berlin: lucky or expected?

HSV beat Union Berlin 3–2, and the goals lean HSV’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Union Berlin, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, HSV were expected to score 1.4 here and Union Berlin 1.1.

Full time

Goals
Hamburger SV 3
Union Berlin 2

February 14, 2026

Luck index +43 HSV lucky · −43 Union Berlin

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. HSV win 4, 3 end level, Union Berlin win 3.

  1. 1 HSV 1 FCU 0
  2. 2 HSV 1 FCU 0
  3. 3 HSV 2 FCU 0
  4. 4 HSV 4 FCU 1
  5. 5 HSV 1 FCU 1
  6. 6 HSV 1 FCU 1
  7. 7 HSV 1 FCU 1
  8. 8 HSV 1 FCU 3
  9. 9 HSV 0 FCU 1
  10. 10 HSV 0 FCU 1

The goals

HSV’s chance of winning

As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while HSV was ahead in it, below while Union Berlin was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 28' Leopold Querfeld (Union Berlin, penalty) 0–1 +26% Union Berlin
2. 35' Ransford-Yeboah Koenigsdoerffer (HSV) 1–1 +27% HSV
3. 45+2' Nicolas Capaldo (HSV) 2–1 +28% HSV
4. 82' Ransford-Yeboah Koenigsdoerffer (HSV) 3–1 +5% HSV
5. 89' Andrej Ilic (Union Berlin) 3–2 +1% Union Berlin

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. HSV win 57% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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