Matchday 22 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · February 15, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Leipzig 2–2 Wolfsburg: lucky or expected?
Leipzig and Wolfsburg drew 2–2. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Leipzig win 6 of 10, Wolfsburg 2, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Leipzig were expected to score 2.3 here and Wolfsburg 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 RB Leipzig | 2 |
 VfL Wolfsburg | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index −23 Leipzig about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Leipzig win 6, 2 end level, Wolfsburg win 2.
- 1 RBL 2 WOB 1
- 2 RBL 2 WOB 1
- 3 RBL 3 WOB 1
- 4 RBL 3 WOB 1
- 5 RBL 3 WOB 0
- 6 RBL 5 WOB 1
- 7 RBL 1 WOB 1
- 8 RBL 3 WOB 3
- 9 RBL 0 WOB 2
- 10 RBL 2 WOB 3
The goals
Leipzig’s chance of winning
As low as 2% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 52' | Mohamed Amoura (Wolfsburg) | 0–1 | +31% Wolfsburg |
| 2. 70' | Yan Diomande (Leipzig) | 1–1 | +38% Leipzig |
| 3. 78' | Mattias Svanberg (Wolfsburg) | 1–2 | +42% Wolfsburg |
| 4. 88' | Brajan Gruda (Leipzig) | 2–2 | +48% Leipzig |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 22, 2025-26
- Dortmund 4–0 Mainz Feb 13, 2026 · replay 78% for Dortmund
- Werder 0–3 Bayern Feb 14, 2026 · replay 84% for Bayern
- HSV 3–2 Union Berlin Feb 14, 2026 · replay 57% for HSV
- Hoffenheim 3–0 Freiburg Feb 14, 2026 · replay 66% for Hoffenheim
- Leverkusen 4–0 St. Pauli Feb 14, 2026 · replay 80% for Leverkusen
- Frankfurt 3–0 Gladbach Feb 14, 2026 · replay 61% for Frankfurt
- Stuttgart 3–1 Köln Feb 14, 2026 · replay 72% for Stuttgart
- Augsburg 1–0 Heidenheim Feb 15, 2026 · replay 64% for Augsburg