Matchday 23 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · February 21, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Leipzig 2–2 Dortmund: lucky or expected?
Leipzig and Dortmund drew 2–2. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Leipzig win 3 of 10, Dortmund 4, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Leipzig were expected to score 1.4 here and Dortmund 1.7. An own goal helped Dortmund.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 RB Leipzig | 2 |
 Borussia Dortmund | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +6 Leipzig about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Leipzig win 3, 3 end level, Dortmund win 4.
- 1 RBL 2 BVB 1
- 2 RBL 1 BVB 0
- 3 RBL 2 BVB 0
- 4 RBL 2 BVB 2
- 5 RBL 1 BVB 1
- 6 RBL 1 BVB 1
- 7 RBL 1 BVB 4
- 8 RBL 0 BVB 2
- 9 RBL 1 BVB 2
- 10 RBL 1 BVB 2
The goals
Leipzig’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 20' | Christoph Baumgartner (Leipzig) | 1–0 | +23% Leipzig |
| 2. 39' | Christoph Baumgartner (Leipzig) | 2–0 | +13% Leipzig |
| 3. 50' | Rômulo (Dortmund, own goal) | 2–1 | +13% Dortmund |
| 90+5' | Fabio Silva (Dortmund) | 2–2 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 23, 2025-26
- Mainz 1–1 HSV Feb 20, 2026 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Köln 2–2 Hoffenheim Feb 21, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Bayern 3–2 Frankfurt Feb 21, 2026 · replay 81% for Bayern
- Union Berlin 1–0 Leverkusen Feb 21, 2026 · replay 38% for Union Berlin
- Wolfsburg 2–3 Augsburg Feb 21, 2026 · replay 49% for Augsburg
- Freiburg 2–1 Gladbach Feb 22, 2026 · replay 60% for Freiburg
- St. Pauli 2–1 Werder Feb 22, 2026 · replay 53% for St. Pauli
- Heidenheim 3–3 Stuttgart Feb 22, 2026 · drawn; replay 21% draws