Matchday 23 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · February 22, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Freiburg 2–1 Gladbach: lucky or expected?
Freiburg beat Gladbach 2–1, and the goals lean Freiburg’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Gladbach, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Freiburg were expected to score 1.6 here and Gladbach 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 SC Freiburg | 2 |
 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +40 Freiburg lucky · −40 Gladbach
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Freiburg win 5, 3 end level, Gladbach win 2.
- 1 SCF 1 BMG 0
- 2 SCF 1 BMG 0
- 3 SCF 2 BMG 1
- 4 SCF 4 BMG 2
- 5 SCF 3 BMG 0
- 6 SCF 1 BMG 1
- 7 SCF 1 BMG 1
- 8 SCF 1 BMG 1
- 9 SCF 0 BMG 2
- 10 SCF 2 BMG 3
The goals
Freiburg’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 38' | Matthias Ginter (Freiburg) | 1–0 | +26% Freiburg |
| 2. 74' | Igor Matanovic (Freiburg) | 2–0 | +9% Freiburg |
| 3. 85' | Haris Tabakovic (Gladbach) | 2–1 | +4% Gladbach |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Freiburg win 60% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 23, 2025-26
- Mainz 1–1 HSV Feb 20, 2026 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Köln 2–2 Hoffenheim Feb 21, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Bayern 3–2 Frankfurt Feb 21, 2026 · replay 81% for Bayern
- Union Berlin 1–0 Leverkusen Feb 21, 2026 · replay 38% for Union Berlin
- Wolfsburg 2–3 Augsburg Feb 21, 2026 · replay 49% for Augsburg
- Leipzig 2–2 Dortmund Feb 21, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- St. Pauli 2–1 Werder Feb 22, 2026 · replay 53% for St. Pauli
- Heidenheim 3–3 Stuttgart Feb 22, 2026 · drawn; replay 21% draws